59 replies to this topic

[Boghos]

Will the most recent developments be an eye opener for Robert Kocharian ? Definitely so. Will there be any meaningful developments in Armenia ? Remains to be seen.

[Arpa]

Will the most recent developments be an eye opener for Robert Kocharian ? Definitely so. Will there be any meaningful developments in Armenia ? Remains to be seen.

Yeah Boghos, what is going on?
The new had been talking about Gruzinia/Vrastan for quite sometime and this morning they are showing how that SOB (see below) has exited. We still remember when he pulled that trick some time ago when he was FM of the SU. He exited in plain view of the world pulling the last rotten brick holding the dilapidated House of Gorbachev together.
Not so much Robert but that other SOB (Son Of a Bolshevik) to the east.

IF:

http://www.davidpbro...rd-kipling.html

[Sasun]

In all fairness, Kocharian maybe corrupt as Shevardnadze (and the majority of politicians in Armenian and Georgia) but there is a significant difference between Armenia and Georgia.

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Georgian President Declares Emergency


By MISHA DZHINDZHIKHASHVILI, Associated Press Writer

TBILISI, Georgia - Opposition supporters broke into Georgia's parliament on Saturday and took it over, scuffling with lawmakers and forcing President Eduard Shevardnadze to flee as tens of thousands of protesters outside demanded his resignation.

Shevardnadze later announced a state of emergency in a speech on national television and said military and police would impose order. Standing beside him, the interior minister, who heads police and internal security, pledged his loyalty.

"Order will be restored and the criminals will be punished," Shevardnadze said.

The opposition claimed it was running the government after its supporters swarmed into parliament and, later, the president's office. Opposition figure and parliament speaker Nino Burdzhanadze declared herself acting president, and the opposition said new elections would be held in 45 days.

Opposition leader Mikhail Saakashvili urged troops not to intervene, and aides called on crowds of supporters to stay around the parliament and "defend" it in case security forces tried to move in.

The takeover of parliament came after two weeks of daily street protests demanding Shevardnadze resign, The opposition and many international observers — including the United States — say Nov. 2 parliament elections were rigged.

The turmoil was the worst political crisis in years in this ex-Soviet republic strategically located on the Black Sea, south of Russia and north of Turkey.

Earlier Saturday, tens of thousands of opposition supporters packed the capital's Freedom Square and other streets, kicking an effigy of Shevardnadze and toting placards reading, "Your century was the 20th. Now it is the 21st." They vowed not to leave the streets until Shevardnadze is ousted.

Moments after Shevardnadze began speaking to open parliament's new session, Saakashvili and hundreds of his supporters pushed through the parliament chamber doors, overturning desks and chairs and leaping onto the speaker's podium.

Security forces surrounding the building apparently let them enter with little resistance.

The 75-year-old Shevardnadze, who has ruled Georgia since 1992, was hustled out of the chamber by his bodyguards.

"The 'Velvet Revolution' has taken place in Georgia," Saakashvili told his cheering backers in the chamber — invoking the largely peaceful 1989 "Velvet Revolution" in the former Czechoslovakia that toppled communism and ultimately led to the breakup of that country.

"We are against violence," he said.

One demonstrator clutching a rose stood on the podium, drinking from a bottle before smashing it on the floor. Another pounded a gavel and shouted.

Pro-government lawmakers were cleared from the building, some of them beaten as they left. Burdzhanadze, an opposition member who was speaker in the outgoing parliament, was then declared acting president until new presidential elections in 45 days.

"We have won today and the most important thing now is to preserve peace. Those who try to steal our victory will be punished," said Burdzhanadze said as her supporters waved white-and-red National Movement flags.

Opposition backers seized control of the square outside parliament, which in the morning was occupied by pro-Shevardnadze forces. Protesters moved on to occupy the president's office. Georgian television showed protesters burning Shevardnadze's chair.

Preparing for any possible police or military action, Zurab Zhvania, a leader of Burdzhanadze's party, addressed the crowds in front of the parliament, asking them not to leave. "We are celebrating victory, but we have to defend it," he said.

After the opposition swept in, the president was driven away from the parliament building, escorted by armed guards wearing black riot helmets and gear in the back of a pickup truck.

Shevardnadze was at a government residence in Krtsanisi on the outskirts of Tbilisi, several television stations reported. Earlier, independent Rustavi-2 television said he was taken to the Kodzhori special forces training center of the Defense Ministry, both other stations did not mention the center.

"I am now announcing a state of emergency," Shevardnadze said in his televised statement. Koba Narchemashvili, the interior minister, said he would obey all the president's orders.

Shevardnadze said Interior Ministry forces could have opened fire on the demonstrators who stormed into parliament, but he forbade the use of force.

"I said there should be no bloodshed," Shevardnadze said.

Before the takeover, Shevardnadze offered a dialogue with the opposition, but "without any ultimatums."

He appeared to soften his position, acknowledging there were some problems with the election, which official results said was won by the pro-Shevardnadze party.

"About 8 to 10 percent of the ballots were invalid," he said, but added that this should be addressed in the courts.

Shevardnadze's second term ends in 2005, and the Nov. 2 elections were considered a dress rehearsal for politicians vying to succeed him.

In the United States, State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said the poll results reflected "massive vote fraud" in some regions and "do not accurately reflect the will of the Georgian people." The State Department called on the government to conduct an independent investigation into the results.

Shevardnadze has tried to foster close ties with Washington.

Russia, which remains a key power in the region, also said the election was marred and called for the "mistakes to be corrected."

"The alternative is chaos," the Russian Foreign Ministry warned.

According to final results, the pro-Shevardnadze For a New Georgia bloc finished first with 21.3 percent of the vote, while the Revival party, which sometimes has been critical of the government but sided with Shevardnadze in the present crisis, finished second with 18.8 percent.

Saakashvili's National Movement came in a very close third with 18 percent of the vote, while the Democrats who allied with Saakashvili got 8.8 percent. The Labor party had 12 percent.

Georgia, a country of nearly 5 million people, is the site of an important pipeline to ship oil from the Caspian Sea to Turkey beginning in 2005.

Shevardnadze helped end the Cold War peacefully as Soviet foreign minister under Mikhail Gorbachev, but he has spent the last decade trying to save his mountainous country from anarchy.

[Boghos]

YeNot so much Robert but that other SOB (Son Of a Bolshevik) to the east.

Oil is around $31 a barrel (so much for the expected drop in price after "victory" in Iraq) but the House of Aliyev doesn´t seem to be benefiting from that very much. On the political front however, as far as I can tell in spite of the uproar during the election period, things have quieted down significantly.

Did Armenia after all benefit from not having become an ex- top Soviet nomenklatura feud such as Vrastan and Azerbaijan ? or were we left with a middle of the road ex-Soviet bureaucrat from the province turned into democrat ?

Edited by Boghos, 22 November 2003 - 04:17 PM.

[Sasun]

Looks like it ended quickly and without blood - Thank God.

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Georgian Leader Signs Resignation Papers


TBILISI, Georgia - Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze signed his resignation papers Sunday, the opposition said, after protesters threatened to seize his residence and his support began to crack, with soldiers joining tens of thousands of opposition backers in the streets of the capital.

The announcement came after protest leader Mikhail Saakashvili went to Shevardnadze's residence on the outskirts of the capital, Tbilisi, to deliver an ultimatum, resign or face a mass march on the home.

"We will go and take the last presidential residence," Saakashvili told protesters before the visit, claiming "almost the entire army has taken the opposition side."

Soon after, Georgi Baramadize, an opposition leader, said on Georgian television that Saakashvili told him by telephone from the residence that the Georgian leader was at that moment signing his resignation.

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov was also at the residence during Saakashvili's visit, though he left without speaking to reporters. He spent Sunday shuttling between the president and the opposition, trying to resolve this ex-Soviet republic's political crisis triggered by Nov. 2 parliament elections that the opposition and the United States say were rigged.

Tens of thousands of opposition supporters were gathered in the square in front of parliament Sunday, dancing and singing, a day after the protesters seized the building and declared a new, interim government.

Earlier Sunday, Shevardnadze went on state television and demanded the opposition leave the parliament building or else he would enforce a state of emergency he announced Saturday.

But while the interior minister, who controls police, promised to back the president, the defense minister said his military forces would not intervene, and some in the ranks of the security services began defecting to the opposition.

Demonstrators in the square embraced a unit of 50 Defense Ministry soldiers who arrived in the square to join the opposition movement. Protesters heaved some of the soldiers into the air in jubilation.

Independent Rustavi-2 television showed another unit, this one of 120 National Guard troops, mingling with the protesters. The soldiers' unidentified commander said the troops pledged loyalty to the interim president named by the opposition, Nino Burdzhanadze.

Georgi Shengilia, the commander of an elite Defense Ministry special forces battalion stationed on the outskirts of Tbilisi, said that he would not fulfill Shevardnadze's orders.

Shevardnadze also sacked Tedo Dzhaparidze, his top security aide, who had publicly acknowledged fraud in the Nov. 2 parliamentary elections and called for a new vote, the president's office said.

[joseph parikian]

This is a very tough and dangerous time for GEORGIA
If civil war brakes in Georgia it will be hard time for Armenia too

[Boghos]

Shefartnazi hung on for quite a while, and then just went home...

[Sasun]

A quick note on differences between Armenia and Georgia developments

Georgian elections were worse than Armenian elections, there was more fraud and less effort to cover them. There were more fistfight and such incidents and less control on part of the government.

Shevardnadze practically didn't offer any good reason to stay as a leader of the country: the economy was in a bad shape and there was very little if any progress; international financial institutions were unhappy and refused to give more money; there had never been constant electricity supply for years; Abkhazia and Ossetia problems remained unsolved; the country's Western orientation hadn't produced any tangible results both politically and economically but instead created antagonism with Russia while the latter seemed to be back taking over energy; there was no progress in democratization and corruption was rampant; Shevardnadze was not unconditionally favored by the power structures; Shevardandze was facing a serious, popular and level-headed opposition such as Saakashvili and Burdzhanadze. The only positive thing to Remember about Shevardnadze was that he had international prestige and a track record stabilizing the country and fighting lawlessness in earlier years, and even these were diminished at the time and throughout the handling of elections.

With Kocharian and his government the things were quite different. Sure, there is not any more democracy than in Georgia or any less corruption. But, the economy had been growing at a steady rate; the World Bank and IMF had been giving money and most of the time praised the government's performance;
people were not feared of Russian influence but many were in fact welcoming pro-Russian policy due to security concerns; Kocharian had proven to be a skillful administrator who managed to lead and stabilize the country through the dangerous aftermath of parliament killings; Kocharian had managed to maintain the status-quo in Artsax and was viewed as a leader who could be trusted at least the Artsax issue since he was the leader of it before; Kocharian enjoyed a reliable support by the power structures, partly because of political alliance and partly because instability is much feared in Armenia; finally and importantly, Kocharian was not facing a worthy and determined opposition unlike Shevardnadze.

So, in my view, Kocharian had more popular support than Shevardnadze, and there were significantly fewer reasons and conditions as well as capable leaders that could lead to a successful revolution (bloodless or otherwise) and change of power at the time of presidential and parliamentary elections. Fortunately, as it stands now, the chances of such a prospect are even less. I think Kocharian will not be having to leave until his term ends.

[joseph parikian]

Sasun when i said hard times i was meaning economicaly
We are facing blockade from east and west and if civil war brakes in Georgia , it will effect our trade routes through Georgia .

Edited by joseph parikian, 24 November 2003 - 12:05 AM.

[Sasun]

Sasun when i said  hard times i was meaning economicaly
We are facing blockade from east and west and if civil war brakes in Georgia , it will effect our trade routes through Georgia .

Yes, of course, no doubt about that. I am personally more worried about negative impact (of all these events) on Armenia than the lack of democracy in Georgia.

[Boghos]

Indeed, so am I.

On the political front I am not advocating the overthrow of Kocharian. Rather, I believe that the fact that a dinosaur is overthrown in face of blatant irregularities in the Caucasus is perhaps a not so subtle message that there is a limit to abuse. Perhaps.

[joseph parikian]

Indeed, so am I.

On the political front I am not advocating the overthrow of Kocharian. Rather, I believe that the fact that a dinosaur is overthrown in face of blatant irregularities in the Caucasus is perhaps a not so subtle message that there is a limit to abuse. Perhaps.

On that i agree with you Boghos

[alpha]

I take my hat off to Georgian people, and their opposition. Unlike Demichian / Sarkissian tandem, Saakashvili / Burjanadze were relentless, and went all the way. They did not bargain with people’s votes, and kept their promise of not deserting people. Georgian opposition had a solid platform, and alternative to development of Georgia. Armenia’s opposition’s only promise was to solve October 27 killings. They were revanchists who did not have a plan, when they took people to streets. Democracy did not win in Armenia, because we did not have leaders capable to fight dictators. Everybod in Armenia knows that Kocharyan, like Shevardnadze is a failed leader. He failed to respect people’s choice. Any leader, who does not respect the choice of the people, doesn’t have a moral right to be a leader. Good or bad are very subjective terms, all that matters at the end of the day is whether the leader respects people’s choice; otherwise he is nothing else but a dictator. Kocharyan might have performed economic miracles, might have turned Armenia into next Singapore, but if people does not want him he should be courageous enough to step down and respect democratic principles.

[sen_Vahan]

"Any leader, who does not respect the choice of the people, doesn’t have a moral right to be a leader. Good or bad are very subjective terms, all that matters at the end of the day is whether the leader respects people’s choice; otherwise he is nothing else but a dictator. Kocharyan might have performed economic miracles, might have turned Armenia into next Singapore, but if people does not want him he should be courageous enough to step down and respect democratic principles"

Vay, vay, vay, I think you need to define then what the democratic principles are. If the nation did not produce THE leader it means it is nor ready yet for that. If the alternative to Kocharian was Demirchian that our nation produced then it is better to have a "dictator" like Kocharian. If the armenian people do really understand the values of democracy thn they should probably understand what it means to have Demirchian as a president.

[Sasun]

Speaking of democracy, let's see how fast Georgia will be democratized. I don't think very fast. The government changed, but did the people and their ways change? Not yet... and won't change easily...

[alpha]

People have to realize that it’s not about Kocharyan or Demirchyan; or Shevardnadze or Burjanadze, but it’s all about respecting people’s right to elect its leaders and choose its future. It’s about establishing a political system where the transfer of power is done peacefully, and not forced upon people. I admire Georgian opposition for standing their ground and not compromising the trust put upon their shoulders by Georgian people.

[bellthecat]

Speaking of democracy, let's see how fast Georgia will be democratized. I don't think very fast. The government changed, but did the people and their ways change? Not yet... and won't change easily...

Yep , maybe they all rushed into Georgia's parliament building because everyone in Georgia thinks that they should be president.

[joseph parikian]

"Any leader, who does not respect the choice of the people, doesn’t have a moral right to be a leader. Good or bad are very subjective terms, all that matters at the end of the day is whether the leader respects people’s choice; otherwise he is nothing else but a dictator. Kocharyan might have performed economic miracles, might have turned Armenia into next Singapore, but if people does not want him he should be courageous enough to step down and respect democratic principles"

Vay, vay, vay, I think you need to define then what the democratic principles are. If the nation did not produce THE leader it means it is nor ready yet for that. If the alternative to Kocharian was Demirchian that our nation produced then it is better to have a "dictator" like Kocharian. If the armenian people do really understand the values of democracy thn they should probably understand what it means to have Demirchian as a president.

sen Vahan
During the crises that was created by the oposition in Armenia lead by Demirchian i said allmost the same thing
At that time i thought that Kocharian was the best of the candidates that were running for the position because the Armenians knew every thing about him
Then there was if i remember more than 8 candidates presenting the oposition and they could not agree between themselfs to produce one name to chalenge Kocharian and more they were fighting among themselfs and the rest was history
I think Armenians reialised how selfish they were and turn around and ellect Kocharian

Edited by joseph parikian, 25 November 2003 - 09:36 AM.

[alpha]

A leader who does not respect the rule of law, can not expect ordinary citizens to respect it either. Leaders should live by example. I don't think current leadership of Armenia, or past leadership of Georgia has led its country by example.


Interesting article about the Georgia's Revolutin in one of the premier magazines, Economist

http://www.economist...tory_id=2243603


Georgia’s velvet revolution

Nov 25th 2003
From The Economist Global Agenda


A peaceful revolution in Georgia has forced Edward Shevardnadze to step down as president, just three weeks after his party's “victory” in a rigged election. What had looked like a grave crisis may have ended up as a triumph for democracy

MORE than a decade after it swept Eastern Europe free of Communist regimes, people power has removed another ancient relic from a former Soviet satellite. Edward Shevardnadze’s departure after 11 years as Georgia’s president was remarkable above all for its peacefulness: after three weeks of non-violent protests against fraudulent parliamentary elections, and after his supporters in government and in the armed forces had begun to desert him, he bowed to the inevitable and resigned on the night of Sunday November 23rd.

Proud Georgians will point to this non-violence to argue that their country is fundamentally different to its Caucasian neighbours, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both of these held flawed elections earlier this year too. But the consequences were not a “velvet revolution” like Georgia’s but, in Azerbaijan’s case, violently repressed riots and, in Armenia’s, a weary resignation by the people that they could do little to change things. That things in Georgia happened differently is a tribute partly to the vibrancy of the democratic opposition there, and partly to the fact that the West’s involvement—both in monitoring the elections and in speaking out about fraud afterwards—was much greater.

But it also reflects the fact that Mr Shevardnadze was already an extraordinarily weak and unpopular leader. The day before resigning, he had declared a state of emergency in the face of the mounting protests, but it soon became doubtful that the armed forces would carry out his orders.

The country that Mr Shevardnadze leaves to Georgia’s next leader bears the marks of his weakness. It is a place where corruption flourishes and the economy stagnates. On Tuesday, the speaker of the outgoing parliament, Nino Burdzhanadze, who has taken over as interim president, said the country faced economic collapse and would be seeking foreign aid.

Besides its dire economic straits, Georgia is at risk of falling to pieces altogether. The secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia show strong signs of preference for belonging to Russia. The Kremlin has maintained its influence there as a way of undermining Mr Shevardnadze—who is as hated in Moscow as he is admired in Washington for his role, while Mikhail Gorbachev’s foreign minister, in the collapse of the Soviet Union. And the autocratic leader of the Ajaria region, Aslan Abashidze, runs it as an autonomous fief. His response to Mr Shevardnadze’s ousting was to close Ajaria’s borders and declare his own state of emergency.

Mr Shevardnadze used to warn of chaos if he were ever deposed; he referred to himself as the guarantor of stability in the Caucasus. For all his faults, he was a wily and experienced politician, wise in the intrigues of the region, who could rely on good contacts in the West to get him out of many a scrape. It remains to be seen whether his successor’s newness to the job will be an advantage or a weakness.

On Tuesday, Georgia's outgoing parliament decided to hold an election for a new president on January 4th. Earlier, the supreme court had annulled most of the results in the November 2nd parliamentary elections, paving the way for fresh polls in the legislature, possibly on the same date as the presidential vote. The leading presidential candidate is Mikhail Saakashvili, a populist, young (35) lawyer with a western image. He will, unlike Mr Shevardnadze, have the support of the people. But he inherits a grand old mess. And while opposition groups were united in their push to oust the president, they will now revert to competing intensely for power.

Despite the challenges facing Georgia, it seems that its crisis has ended up as a triumph for democracy. President George Bush’s officials welcomed Mr Shevardnadze’s resignation and the calling of fresh elections, which came three weeks after Mr Bush had laid out a vision of bringing democracy to the Middle East. But American officials also paid tribute to Mr Shevardnadze’s role in ending Soviet communism. The reaction of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was also ambivalent: Mr Putin said he was worried that Mr Shevardnadze had been forced to quit under threat of violence, but he also pointed out the toppled president's “systemic errors in foreign, domestic and economic policy”.

Despite their jostling for influence in Georgia, it seems that America and Russia forged a pragmatic alliance to help bring about a bloodless resolution to the country's political crisis. Mr Shevardnadze had taken the country closer to America and Western Europe—much to Russia’s irritation—and Georgia was rewarded with American military training and equipment, plus cash to help its near-bankrupt government. Russia still maintains military bases in Georgia, which has a border with the breakaway Russian republic of Chechnya. And it provides most of Georgia’s energy needs through a gas pipeline.

Though Georgia is not a big oil producer, it is an important route between the West and the fast-growing Caspian oilfields. Two western oil companies—Britain’s BP and Norway’s Statoil—reassured their shareholders on Monday that Georgia’s turmoil did not threaten their plans to build oil and gas pipelines through the country, linking platforms in Azerbaijan’s sector of the Caspian Sea to Turkey, thereby avoiding Russia. It is also believed that Russia has a rival plan to get its gas to other countries via Georgia.

So there will inevitably be conspiracy-theorists who will say it is all about oil (and gas). But the toppling of Georgia's veteran president has more to do with the fact that both Georgians and Mr Shevardnadze’s foreign backers had finally grown sick of his failure—12 years after he helped to end the Soviet empire—to turn the promises of democracy and economic development into reality. It also seems to be a further step in the so-called “third wave of democratisation”, which has slowly been sweeping the world since the mid-1970s, and in which one country after another has decided to swap authoritarianism for people power.

[Sasun]

Good article!

But the toppling of Georgia's veteran president has more to do with the fact that both Georgians and Mr Shevardnadze’s foreign backers had finally grown sick of his failure—12 years after he helped to end the Soviet empire—to turn the promises of democracy and economic development into reality.

Very true, he was no longer needed by anyone.