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IS THE GAME OVER? (read the last paragraph)


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Posted 20 October 2000 - 03:11 PM

21 October 2000, Copyright © Turkish Daily News

A relief for Turkey, for now

As US House Speaker Hastert withdraws the 'genocide' resolution, citing President Clinton's warnings, experts say that Turkey should accelerate its efforts for lobbying the US Congress

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Selcuk Gultasli
Ankara - Turkish Daily News

Once again the nightmare didn't happen and the U.S. House of Representatives, heeding the warnings of President Bill Clinton, didn't bring House Resolution 596 to the House Floor, in a decision made at the last minute. It's a relief for Turkey -- nobody doubts it -- but anyone who even knows a little bit about American politics is sure that the Armenian lobby won't end its efforts to bring the resolution to the House again, and yet again. The question now is what Turkey should do in order to abort similar moves that everyone expects to come soon.

The Armenian lobby was actually very aware that they had a good chance this year to pass the resolution on the so-called Armenian genocide by using the delicate voting patterns in California, the state with both the largest electoral vote and the largest Armenian community in the United States. Both Republicans and Democrats desperately need each and every vote as the closest presidential race in years -- some analysts say the second-closest in 40 years after the race between Kennedy and Nixon in 1960 -- approaches. It's of course not only the presidential race but the race to control the House of Representatives as well, which could well fall into the control of either party on the basis of a few votes in a handful of House districts.

Ankara has been arguing for the last several years that with the new leadership in Armenia, there is a new impetus all over the world by Armenian groups to have the so-called genocide claims recognized by the world community. Despite Ankara's awareness about the new stance of the Armenian leadership, critics now argue about why Ankara seemed to be very unprepared for the Armenian-Americans' initiative in the United States.

One of the basic arguments about Ankara's slow and late reaction has to do with its lack of understanding of how the American political system works, despite our sad memories of the 1974 U.S. arms embargo. Most Turkish politicians, if not bureaucrats, still confuse the role of the U.S. president and Congress in a federal system in which each state has its own governor and legislature, with its own senators and representatives, and its own supreme court. (Just one state out of 50 has a unicameral -- one-house -- legislature, Clinton's home state of Arkansas.) That means the U.S. president has little say over most local affairs, and that can sometimes even be the case on the federal level.

One should keep in mind that the U.S. political system was created on the principle of checks and balances and also on the fear of a very strong political leadership. That's why the system as spelled out by the U.S. Constitution allocates most powers not to the president, but rather to Congress and the Supreme Court. As all tour guides in Washington, D.C. tell visitors to the capital city, the White House is a very modest building compared to the Capitol, Congress' home, since the founding fathers tailored the system in a way that strengthened the Congress vis-a-vis the office of the president.

That's why American presidents can't always exert the necessary influence on Congress and why Turkey shouldn't always be heavily dependent on the president for pro-Turkish policies. In 1974, U.S. President Gerald Ford asked Congress not to pass a resolution that would put an arms embargo on Turkey in the wake of the Turkish military intervention in Cyprus to end that island's massacre of Turks by Greeks. Aware of Turkey's strategic location on the Cold War map, Ford actually urged the Congress to resist the call to embargo, but to no avail.

After such a bitter memory, Turkey seems to be repeating the same old mistake of pursuing its relations with the U.S. president only, neglecting the Congress. This time Turkey was lucky and President Clinton's warnings paid off. However, who can guarantee that next time the U.S. president will be as strong as Clinton in defending Turkey?

What did Clinton write to Hastert?
President Clinton's letter to the Speaker Hastert is a very good clue demonstrating that Turkey should put forth substantial efforts in the U.S. Congress. Clinton's letter underlines that the consideration of the resolution "at this time" would endanger American interests. "I am deeply concerned," the letter says, "that consideration of H. Res. 596 at this time could have far-reaching negative consequences for the United States.

We have significant interests in this troubled region of the world: containing the threat posed by Saddam Hussein; working for peace and stability in the Middle East and Central Asia; stabilizing the Balkans; and developing new sources of energy. Consideration of the resolution at this sensitive time will negatively affect those interests and could undermine efforts to encourage improved relations between Armenia and Turkey -- the very goal the sponsors of this resolution seek to advance." As he stressed twice, it's in the timing. It's not in the interests of Washington at this particular time, but at another period of time when the United States isn't heavily dependent on Turkey, the resolution could well pass through the House.

Hastert's response to President Clinton underlines the same point: timing. "This is a bipartisan resolution that I believe would have enjoyed support among the majority of the House," Hastert writes. "Every patriotic American should heed the president's request. Current circumstances dictate that we must proceed with caution and for that reason, I have asked the House majority leader to take H. Res. 596 off the schedule for the remainder of the 106th Congress."

Both President Clinton's and Speaker Hastert's letters are warnings to Turkey that Ankara should do more in terms of lobbying Congress. Time may not always be on Turkey's side.

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Posted 20 October 2000 - 03:48 PM

The reason the resolution got as far as it did is because certain congressmen need our votes here in California. That is not going to change; anybody that accepts turkish dollars in California will get their voreeg voted right out of office.

If turkey does indeed become more Congressionally-savy with how they spend their lobbying dollars, then it will be high-time the Armenians in the US start voting as a block when necessary.

Are there any districts in the US with high concentrations of turkish voters? I don't think so. So there should not be instances of Congressmen trying to "woo" turkish voters, right? How would the lobbying go on then? Strictly through contributions? That'll be easy to trace and publicize. Publically shame any candidate that accepts major contributions from them.

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Posted 21 October 2000 - 02:29 AM

That is not a problem!

It is a big progress! Sooner or later it will pass.

Just a matter of time!
And money, but diaspora in america don't have problems with that

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Posted 21 October 2000 - 09:20 PM

Let's also judge the process, the discussion and voting of the House Resolution 596 by it's results. So, what are the results?

Additional distabilisation in Transcaucasia.

What are your views?

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Posted 22 October 2000 - 03:17 AM

[This message has been edited by Ararat (edited December 11, 2000).]

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Posted 30 October 2000 - 06:16 AM

Ararat jan,

They don't talk to us in plural. The only guys they talk in plural are the ones who posess nucs.
Two days ago they again accused Armenia of harbouring kurdish gurillas. They are praparing excuses to hit us.




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