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Baku-ceyhan Pipeline Under Way


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#21 Stormig

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Posted 28 December 2003 - 12:49 PM

QUOTE (gamavor @ Dec 28 2003, 06:35 PM)
Stormy, why terrorist? It could be preemtive strike implemented by Russian or Armenian forces to eliminate Al-Qaida or Chechen terrorist bases in Azveristan. smile.gif

My question was based on someone else's commentary as to why it shouldn't go through Armenia.

Demian, I believe the corresponding plants in Armenia have been closed for some time. I may be wrong.

#22 Khazar

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Posted 28 December 2003 - 01:13 PM

QUOTE
It is claimeed that Capitalism is efficient, if so, why isnt it going through Armenia? I would like to see the reaction of the Armenians here who seem to worship America and all the "aid" its given to Armenia, and how it will stop when Armenia is no more use to the USA.


It's funny when you look at the map of the route, it makes this obvious zigzag to avoid Armenia. It's just such a glaring middle finger to Russia/Armenia/Iran.

QUOTE
As a sidenote, i dont think we should be too worried as the money generated from Azerbaijans oil will not be going to the Azerbaijani people and their national budget, but rather into the pockets of the Capitalists, therefore a tiny amount will actually go to a possible war effort against Armenia


It's not the money that Azerbaijan will be receiving (whether it's going into the pockets of those in power or to the people) - it's the political value of having a major oil pipeline on your territory. When it comes time to really settle the Artsax conflict, Azerbaijan will be more than delighted to use this pipeline to its advantage. And we're not talking about just Azerbaijan, we're talking about Turkey too. They can both use this pipeline as political currency. The US will now be more likely to seek a settlement to the advantage of the countries it has invested in.

QUOTE
I read the article, and I agree with those that said that not passing the pipeline through Javakhq because there are Armenians there will do no good, and I hope the route is the World Bank's proposal as mentioned. Even if it doesn't fuel separatism, it won't ease the tensions. This is a mistake made by governments who are xenophobic about their minorities (China regarding Xinjiang) and who will refuse to see these minorities as assets or those that are purely negligent and moronic (in Turkey's case, poor infrastructure and investment in eastern Anatolia in the decades preceding the so-called "Kurdish struggle" that sold itself to the ruling religious party at the expense of the one legal more or less Kurdish party). Everyone has seen the results - violence. And nobody wants that and shouldn't want it for themselves or anyone.


Good point. And going back to what Shahumyan said about the fact that the money will obviously benefit those in power...I think that if this project was to really benefit the common people of Azerbaijan, all the calls for war and other such populist rhetoric by the Az. opposition would somehow seem irrelevant and out of place. But I'm afraid the common peoples' expectations are exceeding the benefits they will get, and that's not good for anyone.

Furthermore, the marginalization and the denial of a secure economic future for a national minority like the Armenians of Javakhk, (or in a number of other cases, as was mentioned the Chinese and Xinjiang and the Uighur minority, etc.) is such a paranoid, short-sighted move. All the human potential in those regions that could benefit the state as a whole are foregone, and thus, the cycle of isolation, poverty and discontent continues.

Edited by Khazar, 28 December 2003 - 01:20 PM.


#23 Sebastia

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Posted 28 December 2003 - 11:43 PM

You guys, check out the map

http://www.la.utexas...oil/caspian.gif

haha laugh.gif , they named one of the oil fields "Artsax", and another one "nachijevan"


the black line is the one that exists right now
the dotted one is the one they are talking about making
and the green one is what the russians want (I guess). huh.gif

#24 spectra

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Posted 29 December 2003 - 12:03 AM

QUOTE (Shahumyan @ Dec 28 2003, 04:37 AM)
Theres plenty of oil in Baku, if not the capitalists would not have invested money in order to get the oil out.

The pipeline is an excellent example of how the ruling class puts its interests above those of anything else.

It is claimeed that Capitalism is efficient, if so, why isnt it going through Armenia?  I would like to see the reaction of the Armenians here who seem to worship America and all the "aid" its given to Armenia, and how it will stop when Armenia is no more use to the USA.

As for the solution, the only solution is the combniation of the workers uprising of all the transcaucausian nations, to take power into their own hands and make decisions democratically, according to the needs of the region and for the benefit of the region, not for the benefit of the capitalists in Baku, Tiblissi, Ankara, London or Washington...

I don't think there is a plenty of oil in Kaspian sea/lake. If there was such thing, then Russians would've used it by now.
I see this British Support as a "Who Is Next To Invade?" part of project. I hope the British taxpayers will not allow the government to use the 1.5 billion dollars for the "pipeline", who knows what pipeline may turn into? A weapon for chechens? A reason to have the American Army in Azerbaijan for upcoming invadion of Iran?

Edited by spectra, 29 December 2003 - 12:06 AM.


#25 Shahumyan

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Posted 29 December 2003 - 06:41 AM

sincec when did the capitalists tell the people where money was going?? im a british taxpayer, no bastard told me where money was going...

#26 Nakharar

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Posted 30 December 2003 - 03:01 PM

Maybe Armenians should count themselves lucky in not having natural resources. It's a double edged sword, one's blessings will be soon cancelled out. Countries with oil are usually toyed around. Though Azerbaijan is tad bit smarter or luckier in regard to the foreign oil companies. Their oil consortium SOCAR will get about 80 percent of the money, whereas the exception in other oil exporting countries is only 50 percent. If they don't diversify their economy and peg all their income and expectations on oil then they are in for a rough ride. They should take lessons from Saudi Arabia which squandered 400 billion (!) dollars in infrastructure and nothing in human capital. We'll all see the results in a few years. Though I don't think that Azerbaijan is in such a desperate situation (economically maybe) as those Arab countries who had nothing to begin with. I don't think they can be compared to the ignorant Arab herd. The level of people's education is comparatively higher and even though they can hardly be classified as democratic they have an active opposition which won't ignore discrepancies so easily.

#27 gamavor

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Posted 06 April 2004 - 11:47 PM

Geology, Oil and Gas Potential, Pipelines, and the Geopolitics of the
Caspian Sea Region

Ocean Development & International Law
35:19-40, 2004

BY PHILIP D. RABINOWITZ, MEHDI Z. YUSIFOV, JESSICA ARNOLDI, EYAL HAKIM
Department of Geology & Geophysics
Texas A & M University
College Station, Texas, USA

EXCERPT

Legal Issues in the Caspian Sea

The exporting of fossil fuels from the Caspian region will require the
development of pipelines that traverse political boundaries. There are
many scenarios for pipeline routes, as discussed above, each having
both political and economic problems. What is discussed below are the
current legal status of the Caspian Sea and the regional conflicts
that pose political risks that must be taken into consideration before
decisions are made. Before the breakup of the Soviet Union, treaties
of 1921 and 1940 established an exclusive 10-mile fishing zone for the
Soviet Republics and Iran and referred to the Caspian Sea as the
Soviet-Iranian Sea. However, these treaties did not cover ownership of
seabed boundaries or which state had jurisdiction respecting oil and
gas exploration. In the post-Soviet era, conflicting approaches have
been proposed to dividing the offshore regions among the five
independent countries bordering the Caspian Sea. Some important
agreements have been reached, but there are still a number of
outstanding problems. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the
Sea (UNCLOS) provides that a state may claim a 12-nautical-mile (nm)
territorial sea and a 200 nm exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The
Caspian Sea is not wide enough to allow for the full extent of 200 nm
EEZs for states on opposing coasts. The threshold legal question is
how the Caspian Sea is to be classified. If the Caspian Sea is
classified as a sea, then UNCLOS is applicable; however, if it is
classified as a lake, then UNCLOS is not applicable and the Caspian
Sea is free of the international rules governing oceans (Oxman,1996;
Sciolino, 1998).

The initial Russian position, addressed to the UN General Assembly in
1994, was that international ocean law, particularly those pertaining
to territorial seas and EEZ, do not apply since the Caspian is a
landlocked body of water without natural links to the worlds' oceans
(Gouliev, 1997). Their position was that there are no grounds for
unilateral claims to areas of the Caspian and that the entire sea is a
joint venture area (a "condominium" approach). The implications are
that any activity with respect to utilizing the seabed by one country
encroaches upon the interests of all the other bordering countries. In
1996 Russia softened their position by suggesting the establishment of
a 45 nm EEZ for all littoral states with joint ownership beyond the 45
nm limit.

The Azerbaijan position differed considerably from that of the initial
Russian position. Azerbaijan claimed that the Caspian Sea falls within
the jurisdiction of the international Law of the Sea. Using this
approach, a median line is drawn using the shores with the coastal
states having full sovereignty in their respective sectors. In 1997,
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, as between themselves, agreed to an
approach based on the median line principle. Russia and Kazakhstan in
1998, and Russia and Azerbaijan in 2001 also agreed to this approach
to delineate their respective offshore areas. Thus, Russia,
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have agreed to divide the seafloor into
sectors or zones between corresponding neighboring and oppositely
located states.

Turkmenistan agrees to this approach in principle, but not in method,
claiming that application of a median line does not take into account
the peculiarities of the shore line, in particular, the potentially
oil rich Absheron Peninsula that is presently claimed by
Azerbaijan. Iran, however, still disagrees with any division of the
Caspian using median lines. Iran originally favored the "condominium"
approach but later considered dividing the Caspian into five equal
areas with each state having sovereignty over 20% of the seabed
resources and water. Utilizing median lines, Iran's sector of the
Caspian does not have the potential fossil fuel resources. Iran's
method of dividing the Caspian gives them not only a larger share of
the Caspian Sea than the median line approach but as well would place
potential oil-rich seafloor regions claimed by Azerbaijan in their
sector (Croissant, 1998; U.S. Energy Information Administration,
2001).

Because of the above disagreements, there are conflicts between
Azerbaijan and Iran. In 1999, Azerbaijan accused Iran of licensing
Royal Dutch Shell to do seismic exploration in an area the Azeri
government claimed was in their sector. In July 2001, the Iranian Oil
Ministry issued a warning to foreign energy firms not to work with the
other four Caspian states in the disputed areas of the Caspian
Sea. The day after the warning was issued, Iranian ships intercepted a
British Petroleum (BP) seismic exploration ship (the Geofizik-3) that
was undertaking exploration in the Araz-Alov-Sarq fields in the South
Caspian Basin. These fields, located ~90 miles southeast of Baku,
Azerbaijan, were licensed by the Azeri government to a BP consortium
and are in a region over which Iran claims sovereignty. This incident
was the first overt military act in the Caspian Sea since the breakup
of the Soviet Union (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2002).

According to Dr. Elmar Mamedyarov, Charge d'Affaires, Embassy of
Azerbaijan, the dispute between Iran and Azerbaijan regarding the
legal status of the Caspian is a "component of the tension that has
arisen in the area" (Calabrese, 2001). This tension includes the
Iranian support of Armenia in the conflict over Nagorno-Karakh, a
highly contentious region, and one that pits Armenia and Azerbaijan in
a state of "cold war."

The U.S. presence and influence in Azerbaijan has also fueled tension
in the region, especially since Iranian companies are excluded from
U.S. energy projects in the Caspian. Conflicts regarding seabed
sovereignty also exist between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Though as
noted earlier Turkmenistan has agreed in principle with Azerbaijan,
Russia, and Kazakhstan respecting use of a median line to divide up
the seabed, exactly where to draw this line has created a major
dispute with Azerbaijan. The Absheron Peninsula of Azerbaijan juts
into the Caspian Sea. Because of this coastline "anomaly," strict
application of a median line gives Azerbaijan more of the mid-Caspian
than Turkmenistan would agree to cede. Turkmenistan claims the border
should lie on a line drawn using the shores of the two states lying
opposite. This would give Turkmenistan a larger share of the
mid-Caspian, an area where there is significant oil potential (the
Serdar/Kyapaz oil fields). Though considerable rhetoric has arisen
between the two countries, hostilities have thus far been
nonexistent...


Copyright: Taylor & Francis Inc.

http://groong.usc.ed...s/msg84446.html



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The only good of this piece of paper (I dare not to call it article, more less analysis) is that it touches upon some of the hot issues that I made a note about, some time ago. Nevertheless, the names of the authors speak for themselves. I never read anything more dilettantish on the subject, however I think the main purpose of the article is to throw dirt over Armenia.
Iran supporting Armenia??? How? With silence? How about the afghans and mudjahedins, fighting with Al-Qaida money against Armenians?
Politics aside, the fear of the Azeris for the lion chunk are very real. As I said the Caspian is a lake - legally and physically.




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