Now that clashes occurred in Yerevan and deaths were registered, all bets are off. The authorities in Armenia fell in the trap that LTP dug. This is exactly what he wished for, now he actually has the chance to emerge as the victor, at least in the eyes of the public, even winning over those who were against him to start with. Now his wish is to be arrested, and the authorities will duly comply, soon after that he will become the new president. Then we'll talk again about the state of democracy in Armenia under LTP.
If the Authorities had let the demonstration take its course, Levon would have lost, the new president, Serje Sarkisian, having been shaken after such vociferous demonstrations, could have formed a national unity government, which he promised by the way. Levon, having burnt all bridges with his venomous speeches, could not have been considered for any part of the government, but Serje could have won over many disenchanted people by showing some humiliation and a true sense of cooperation with many other parties.
Now, I think this will not happen, the polarization, will deepen and the people will demand justice for the reckless attitude of the authorities and the resulting loss of life. I for one want to see those who gave the orders to shoot punished, this could go all the way up to Kocharian or even Serje Sarkisian.
What a mess! And shame on us for getting the situation to where it is now. Already people were migrating out of Armenia, now they are going to flee en masse.
As to your question of what next? I don't know what should be done, perhaps the army can take over and announce new elections in six months forbidding both Serje and Levon to run again. But that requires impartiality from the army, which would be a pipe dream on my part.
Edited by Z'areh, 02 March 2008 - 11:05 AM.