316 replies to this topic

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

clouds getting darker around iran

[MosJan]

yet again clouds are getting darker around Iran... turks / azeris / izrael & brothers are sharpening there swords 

[MosJan]

https://a1plus.am/hy...qHbaJyTVq72nVp4

Խոմենեիի ներկայացուցչությունը Բաքվում փակելը գոտկատեղից ներքև հարված է Իրանին․ Արամ Սարգսյանը

[Yervant1]

The National Interest

Oct 5 2021

 

 

 

As Tensions Rise, Iran Holds Military Exercises Near Azerbaijan

Iran’s anger also stems partly from Azerbaijan’s quiet security partnership with Israel, which it views as a potential threat to its territory.

by Trevor Filseth L

 

In a show of force directed at Azerbaijan amid rising tensions, Iran’s military has initiated a series of exercises near the neighboring country’s border. Footage broadcast on Iran’s state-run television portrayed tanks and artillery taking part in the exercises in northwestern Iran, and broadcasters claimed that Iran had tested a domestically-manufactured long-range drone.

 

 

Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have escalated throughout 2021. In September, troops from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deployed to the border in response to joint military exercises between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan.

 

Iran’s anger also stems partly from Azerbaijan’s quiet security partnership with Israel, which it views as a potential threat to its territory. However, the small Caspian nation’s ties to Tel Aviv have proven highly advantageous. Israeli and Turkish drone technology, as well as other assistance, were crucial to Baku’s victory over Armenia in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War from September to November 2020. In that war, Iran proclaimed neutrality and refused to aid either side, despite its traditionally closer ties to Armenia.

Another point of contention between the two countries was raised after Azerbaijan imposed taxes on Iranian truck drivers passing through Azerbaijan’s newly conquered territory in Nagorno-Karabakh to bring goods to Armenia, and arrested two truck drivers, stoking outrage in Tehran. 

 

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Foreign Minister in the administration of newly elected President Ebrahim Raisi, warned Azerbaijan’s new ambassador to Tehran that the Islamic Republic would not “tolerate the presence and activities of the Zionist regime” along its borders. Amir-Abdollahian indicated that Iran would do “whatever necessary” to repel Israeli encroachment, ominously warning that the IRGC’s Quds Force were “soldiers without borders.”

 

 

Iranian leaders also expressed concern over terror groups such as ISIS, which it suggested had infiltrated its members into Azerbaijan as volunteers during its 2020 war. Azerbaijan was known to recruit Syrian mercenaries to its side during the conflict, possibly violating international law in the process.

Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev told the Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency news outlet that Iran had not informed him of the planned exercises and questioned Tehran’s motivations for doing so, although he acknowledged that it was their “sovereign right” to conduct the exercises on their own territory.

 

 

While Iran and Azerbaijan are both majority-Shi’a Muslim states—two of the world’s only four such states, in addition to Bahrain and Iraq—they have a complicated history and some degree of mutual animosity. Ethnic Azeris are a majority in several of Iran’s northwestern provinces and have pushed for separation from Tehran on several occasions in the past century.

Trevor Filseth is a current and foreign affairs writer for the National Interest.

 

https://nationalinte...erbaijan-194901

[Yervant1]

  Oct 5 2021

 

"Tehran is watching closely." What will happen to cargo transportation from Iran to Armenia

 

• JAMnews, Yerevan

For three weeks already, Azerbaijani police and customs checkpoints are operating on the section of the road between the Armenian cities of Goris and Kapan, thus slowing down cargo transportation from Iran to Armenia. There is a section of the route that came under the control of Azerbaijan after the second Karabakh war.

Azerbaijani customs officers stop Iranian trucks on the Vorotan section of the Goris-Kapan road and demand payment of customs duties “for crossing the border with Azerbaijan”. Customs posts, according to the official report of Azerbaijan, appeared due to the fact that “numerous incidents of entry of Iranian trucks into the part of Karabakh controlled by Russian peacekeepers have been established”.

The Armenian side faces serious economic problems, since 40% of the country’s trade turnover is carried out through Iran.

Tehran is actively discussing the issue with both Yerevan and Baku. But there is no final decision yet.

All the details – what is happening on the southern border of Armenia, how the country’s government intends to ensure the uninterrupted movement of Iranian trucks and expert opinion on the matter below.

• Customs payments for Iranian trucks: what is happening at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border
• Echo of the second Karabakh war: why Baku got the opportunity to blockade the south of Armenia

Tensions on the Goris-Kapan interstate road

After the fall of 2020, that is, the end of the second Karabakh war, the 21-kilometer section of the road between the Armenian cities of Goris and Kapan came under the control of Azerbaijan. The security of this section of the road has been ensured by Russian border guards since December.

The tension here began on August 25, 2021, when the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan blocked the road on the Karmrakar-Shurnukh-Goris-Vorotan section and opened it only two days later. Some Armenian villages became isolated and the Russian peacekeepers had to provide them with food during these days.

On September 12, the road closed again – this time to Iranian trucks. Near the village of Vorotan, the Azerbaijani side established posts, armed masked officers began to check the documents of the drivers of Iranian trucks and transported cargo, as well as demand the payment of customs duties.

On September 15, Azerbaijani police arrested two Iranian drivers under the pretext of “illegal entry into the territory of Azerbaijan”. Until now, nothing has been reported about their fate.

Is there a way out of the crisis?

The situation on the Goris-Kapan road has returned to the agenda the issue of building alternative roads in the southern border region of Armenia – Syunik, which was discussed at the beginning of the year.

“We will start construction as soon as the weather conditions permit us”, said Minister of Territorial Administration Suren Papikyan, who now holds the post of Deputy Prime Minister, in February.

To bypass the Kapan-Goris highway, the government decided to build an alternative Kapan-Tatev road. Reconstruction of the Tatev-Aghvani section of this road (43 km long) began at the end of July.

“Tatev-Aghvani will be completed this year, all unpaved roads will be ready by winter, but the asphalt road, of course, will only be in the spring”, Deputy Prime Minister Suren Papikyan told Azatutyun (Freedom) radio.

The government plans to complete the construction of the Tatev-Aghvani road by the end of November.

Tatev-Aghvani or Tatev-Ltsen?

Along with the construction of the Tatev-Aghvani road, the Armenian government initiated the construction of another bypass route – Tatev-Ltsen. But the second highway will only be ready in the next year, 2022.

Moreover, the difference between the two bypass routes, which should become an alternative to the Goris-Kapan interstate road, is that Tatev-Aghvani is difficult to pass for trucks with trailers.

It turns out that many Iranian trucks will have to wait several more months or even a year before they can transport goods to Armenia without paying customs duties to Azerbaijan.

“Tehran is closely following the development of events”

The situation caused tension in Tehran’s relations with Baku, and the problem was discussed with the Armenian authorities.

In response to a request from the Armenian CivilNet publication, the Iranian Embassy in Armenia stated that Tehran is closely following developments in the region in recent months, in particular, the situation with Iranian cargo trucks:

“Development of relations with friendly Armenia and removal of road obstacles and problems are on the agenda”.

The situation on the Goris-Kapan road was discussed during the summit meetings. On September 17, in Dushanbe, the heads of Armenia and Iran discussed, among others, “the issue of organization of uninterrupted cargo transportation between the two countries”.

According to Iranian news agencies, President Raisi announced that an Armenian-Iranian working group would be set up for “energy exchange, transportation and joint production”. According to the same source, Nikol Pashinyan welcomed “Iran’s initiatives to resolve existing problems”.

On September 24, in New York, within the framework of the 76th session of the UN General Assembly, a meeting was held between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Iran, who discussed “challenges for transport transit from Iran to Armenia and ways to overcome them”.

Iranian Ambassador Abbas Badakhshan Zokhuri periodically discusses the situation with the Armenian authorities. In recent weeks, he met with the Speaker of the Parliament, the Secretary of the Security Council, the Foreign Minister and one of the Deputy Prime Ministers. It is reported that during these meetings, the deepening of economic cooperation and the prospect of increasing trade turnover to $ 1 billion a year were discussed.

Expert opinion What steps will Iran take?

According to Iran expert Garik Misakian, Iran is inclined to restore uninterrupted communication as soon as possible. In his opinion, judging by the statements of the Armenian and Iranian sides, one can assume that Iran is ready “to support the construction of an alternative road or take part in it”.

“Iran is not inclined towards the final closure of the Goris-Kapan road. In connection with this situation, many negative statements have already been made in Iran, even at the highest level”, says Garik Misakian, citing the arrest of two Iranian drivers as an example.

However, despite the tension that has arisen in the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations, according to Misakian, Tehran will not take any steps until the Armenian side has yet expressed its official position:

“The Iranian side has neither the tools nor the desire to interfere in this issue or solve it in favor of Armenia”.

Garik Misakian believes that Iran will first do what proceeds from its national interests, security and economic issues and will wait for Armenia’s position:

“If the Armenian side agrees to transfer control over this section of the road to Azerbaijan, Iran will accept it. If the Armenian side starts any process of returning or joint exploitation of this section of the road, Iran will adjust its policy accordingly, since it cannot interfere in the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. At this stage, it seems that Iran supports the Armenian side”.

Armenia’s losses

Collecting customs duties on Iranian truck drivers on the Goris-Kapan interstate road could have serious economic consequences for Armenia. For three weeks now, economists and the opposition have been talking about the need for the country’s authorities to resolve this issue.

However, the government does not share their concerns. In particular, Minister of Economy Vahan Kerobyan told reporters that he does not see any big problems:

“Yes, there is an obstacle that I am sure we will overcome in the near future”.

Economist Suren Parsyan believes that Armenia’s foreign trade turnover with Iran is about $410 million a year.

Armenia exports $ 90 million (electricity, which accounts for 80% of exports, meat products and timber) and imports $ 320 million from Iran (gas, oil products, fertilizers, construction materials). And all transportation is carried out by Iranian trucks.

“Armenia very often uses the territory of Iran both for import and export of goods to Arab and Asian countries. If the road issue is not resolved, Armenian goods will become more expensive and lose their competitiveness in the international market, be it the UAE, Iran, China, India or any other country”, says the economist.

Suren Parsyan considers it necessary to reduce risks, otherwise the current situation will affect the economic activity of Armenia in general and the volume of exports – with all the ensuing consequences.

According to the economist, the Tatev-Aghvani road under construction is a temporary solution: even if the road is widened, it will be difficult to pass and ensure the same volume of cargo transportation:

“The only long-term solution will be the construction of the Sisian-Agarak road within the framework of the North-South project”.

With the North-South highway, Armenia can become a transit country. From the north, it will connect Armenia with Georgia and provide access to the Black Sea and European countries. From the south, the highway will connect the country with Iran. The road began to be built in 2012, it was planned to put it into operation in 2019, but so far only about 20% have been built. In 2021, the European Union announced that it will provide 600 million euros for the construction of the most difficult sections of the highway.

Suren Parsyan notes that, according to the draft state budget, the work will begin at the end of next year. Moreover, first it will be necessary to carry out design work, and the construction itself may take another 2-3 years.

https://jam-news.net...ran-to-armenia/

[Yervant1]

1. Columnists

FATAH: Turkey's ambitions clash with Iranian sovereignty

Author of the article:

Tarek Fatah

Publishing date:

Oct 06, 2021  •  15 hours ago  •  3 minute read  •   Join the conversation

Iranians find themselves isolated and under threat of having their land trade links with Europe cut off. PHOTO BY PETER HERMES FURIAN /iStock / Getty Images

 

 

Article content

While the rest of the world is distracted by the news of the Taliban pushing Afghanistan back into the dark ages, another conflict is brewing elsewhere in the Muslim world, this time pitting Turkey’s Ottoman Caliphate dreams against rival Iran.

 

A possible flare-up might occur as Turkey strengthens its ties with Azerbaijan in what is being referred to as the “Council of Turks,” a group that includes Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, stretching east towards the region where China meets the Islamic republics to its west.

And now with the Taliban controlling Afghanistan and Pakistan’s subservience to all things Turkish, the Iranians find themselves isolated and under threat of having their land trade links with Europe cut off.

The conflict lines were drawn out during the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 when troops from Turkey, Pakistan and remnants of Syrian ISIS were deployed alongside Azeri forces to wrest control of Nagorno Karabakh from Armenia.

An emboldened Azerbaijan has made attempts to cut off all land trade routes from Iran towards Europe by imposing tariffs at border crossings and detaining Iranian trucks and their drivers.

On Sept. 24, the simmering tensions went public when Iranian lawmaker Fada Hossein Maleki, who is a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee warned Azerbaijan of obstructing transit of goods between Iran and Armenia and objected to a joint military exercise at the Iranian border by the military forces of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan.

Pakistan’s military that has been involved in the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, has been providing military manpower to boost Azerbaijan’s strength, most likely as mercenaries for hire by Turkey.

The Iranian parliamentarian warned that Iran closely monitors developments beyond its northern borders and is sensitive to suspicious moves close to its borders.

He added that Iran did not expect such a military exercise regardless of why it was carried out. He added that Iran also expects Turkey and Pakistan to seek Tehran’s views before arranging such joint exercises.

Maleki said, “Regardless of the label of the joint military exercise, security circles all over the world will perceive it differently.” Meanwhile, he warned Baku to be wary of suspicious moves as belligerent countries such as Israel are planning to disrupt the security balance of the region. He told Baku: “Not to play in the hands of regional troublemakers, as most of those troubles would be targeted at Baku.”

 

Article content

There have been several reports in recent days that Azeri forces, which have entered Armenian territory north of the Iranian border after last year’s war with Armenia, have been stopping and preventing free movement of Iranian vehicles. The Iranian ambassador in Baku has complained to Azerbaijani officials. Maleki raising the issue said, “Armenia is an independent country and Iran wishes to have trade relations with Yerevan.”

In this equation of Turkey vs. Iran and Azerbaijan vs. Armenia, Israel is also playing an unethical game by arming the Azeris in an undeclared bizarre alliance with Pakistan.

Inside Israel, there is little unanimity on Israel’s involvement in the conflict. A column in the Jerusalem Post raised a deeply ethical and moral question. Harut Sassounian wrote that the Jewish State needs to stop arming Azerbaijan. In a controversial remark, he wrote: “It is disgraceful that descendants of the Holocaust are arming Azerbaijan to kill survivors of the Armenian Genocide for a fistful of dollars!”

Israel simply cannot turn its focus beyond Iran. This can turn into an obsession that totally blinds Jerusalem from viewing the real threat – Pakistani nukes targeting Israeli cities. While Iran may be pressured to not enrich uranium, Pakistan’s nuclear missiles may ostensibly aim at rival India, but the truth is they are aimed at Tel Aviv, not New Delhi.

So when Europe and Asia collide near the Caspian Sea, the catastrophe may not occur at the hands of Iran, but the much-loved ally of America, Pakistan – currently hired as mercenaries for Turkey.

Edited by Yervant1, 07 October 2021 - 06:41 AM.

[Yervant1]

Oct 6 2021

 

 

 

“Iranian troops will enter Armenia and liquidate the Zionist uprising”

by The Frontier Post

 

Written by The Frontier Post

Yuri Sokolov

The situation in the South Caucasus is unstable again. On the border with Iran and Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan have begun a new stage of the exercises “Indestructible Brotherhood-2021”. Iran, in turn, is carrying out maneuvers on the border with Azerbaijan. The parties exchange unfriendly statements and link them with the results of the war in Karabakh. Gazeta.ru understood the reasons for this tension and how it would affect Moscow’s interests.

“Conquerors of Khaybar” vs. “Brotherhood-2021”

The first anniversary of the second Karabakh war gave rise to new contradictions in Transcaucasia. They manifested themselves in early September, when Azerbaijan began to hinder the supply of Iranian fuel to Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijanis stopped freight transport from Iran, which was heading to Stepanakert, and charged a fare from each driver.

In response, the Iranian armed forces announced the Conquerors of Khaybar exercises in the northwest of the country. It is important to note that Tehran is conducting large-scale exercises on the border with Azerbaijan for the first time in 30 years.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a loud statement. “T-hose who suffer from illusions will soon be slapped in the face. The countries of the region should not allow foreign armies to interfere, ”he said.

The Iranian government newspaper Vatan-e-Emrooz specified the official position of the state in a very peculiar way: “Ankara and Baku know that in case of a change in borders, Iranian troops will immediately enter the territory of Armenia and liquidate the Zionist uprising.”

Iran, apparently, hints at close military-technical cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel during last year’s war – in particular on drones. Although in Tel Aviv it was repeatedly emphasized that this interaction did not at all mean acceptance of one or another side of the conflict, but was explained only by commercial interests.

“Now Iranian propaganda is actively using the Israeli map for an internal audience, talks about the presence of the Israeli military in Azerbaijan and symbolically calls its teachings“ Conquerors of Kha-ybar ”in honor of the Battle of Khaibar in 629, where the troops of the Prophet Muhammad defeated the Jews. However, in reality, the Iranians are not worried about Tel Aviv, but Ankara,” – Isa Javadov, a historian and orientalist, told Gazeta.Ru.

Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey announced their intention to conduct joint maneuvers as part of the next stage of “Indes-tructible Brotherhood-202-1” on October 5-8 on the border with Armenia and Iran, in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.

At the same time, the parties focused on the fact that they are talking about “measures for demining and training in the territories liberated from the Armenian occupation.” In Yerevan, it seems, they took the hint. In any case, on October 4, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan arrived in Tehran for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian.

Zangezur Corridor of Discord

Regardless of the reasons that prompted Iran to defend its position at the diplomatic and military level, it is difficult not to notice that Tehran’s policy has changed markedly with the coming to power of President Ibrahim Raisi in the summer of 2021.

“The situation is very alarming, since the actions of the new president are rather unconstructive and clearly not peaceful. I hardly imagine that ex-Pres-ident Rouhani would use escalation to advance his goals, as Raisi does, ”says Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies, IMEMO RAN .However, according to t-he expert, it will be difficult for Tehran to change the balance of power in the region.

“The ability of Baku to influence the Iranian-Armenian trade by blocking the Goris-Kapan highway was only a trigger for the accumulating discontent of Iran. In the long term, Iran fears the opening of the Zangezur corridor, which will connect Azerbaijan and Turkey by land and will be able to attract the Azerbaijani-Turkish military presence on the border of Iran and Armenia under various pretexts, ”Javadov said.

Thus, the transit of Iranian products and energy resources through Armenia to other regions will be jeopardized, and the Cauca-sus will become another place where Ankara will seize the levers of pressure on Iran, the expert said.

“Tehran’s militant rhetoric adds even more complexity to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh co-nflict, which is already filled with internal dynamics. But the most unpleasant thing for Moscow is that such rhetoric of Tehran gives Ankara even more opportunities to act as the patron of Baku and, accordingly, get even more reas-ons to increase its influence in Azerbaijan,” Pritchin said.

At the moment, the strategy of the Iranian leadership strongly contradicts the roadmap of the Karabakh settlement outlined by Russia. “By its demonstrative unwillingness to build the Zangezur corridor, Iran is actually torpedoing the achievements of Russian diplomacy in unblocking transport communications,” Isa Javadov explained.

Nevertheless, a positive outcome for the Iranian side under a military scenario is hardly visible, the expert said.

The armed formations of the Islamic Republic are now involved in Syria and Iraq, significant costs are spent on financing allied groups in Yemen and Lebanon, and instability in Afghanistan is a reason to keep troops in this direction. Another military conflict involving Iran will only exacerbate its international isolation and hit once again on the well-being of the population.

At the same time, neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey are also interested in the conflict, although they are pulling troops to the borders to demonstrate force. Russia, too, would be satisfied only with a balance of interests in the region, which excludes a military scenario. This probably explains the diplomatic work being carried out by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov . On October 6, the minister plans to hold talks with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian.

https://thefrontierp...onist-uprising/

[Yervant1]

Asbarez.com

 

Iran Closes Routes to Turkish Trucks

by Asbarez Staff

 

 October 7, 2021

 

in Armenia, Artsakh, Featured Story, Latest, News, Top Stories

 

Cargo trucks on Turkey-Iran border

 

Iran reportedly has closed its roads to Turkish trucks, a Turkish official told the Russian RIA Novosti news agency. The news comes days after Azerbaijani media claimed that Iran had closed its airspace to Azerbaijani military planes flying to Nakhichevan.

Ozcan Alash, the head of the Turkish Association for the Development of Trade with Iran, told RIA Novosti that initially Tehran introduced a ban on the passage of Turkish trucks then Ankara reportedly made a decision to halt entry of Iranian trucks into Turkey as retaliation.

Baku and Tehran are in a diplomatic row over Azerbaijani forces stopping and taxing Iranian trucks en-route to Armenia on the Goris-Kapan Highway. Azerbaijani forces also arrested two Iranian truck drivers last month. The rift has escalated due to disparaging comments from official Baku, especially Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who late last month accused Iran of holding military drills near Azerbaijan’s border as a response to the highway blockade issue.

Ankara has voiced support for Baku’s policies, especially its moves on the transport link between Iran and Armenia.

“The trade turnover between Iran and Turkey has been completely suspended due to the tense situation on the border between Iran and Azerbaijan,” Alash told RIA Novosti.

He clarified that the current situation could negatively impact trade between Turkey and Iran, which has already plummeted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

 

https://asbarez.com/...ckJhWKcivA6Kcdg

[Yervant1]

Tehran Times, Iran

Oct 8 2021

 

 

 

Iran, Armenia confer on establishing new transit routes

October 8, 2021 - 15:30

 

 

TEHRAN - Iranian Deputy Transport and Urban Development Minister Kheirollah Khademi has announced an agreement between Iran and Armenia for establishing new transit routes, IRNA reported.

“The alternative transit route for Iranian trucks in Armenia will be asphalted within the next month, and there will be no need to use the previous route which passes through Azerbaijan and requires us to pay tolls to the country,” Khademi said.

Earlier this week, Khademi visited Armenia on top of a delegation for discussing solutions to resolve recent transit problems posed by Azerbaijan along a 20-kilometer section of Armenia’s Goris-Kapan Road stretching from Norduz (in Iran) to Yerevan.

“Positive meetings were held with Armenian officials, including the Minister of Infrastructure and his deputies. In order to determine a new route for Iranian trucks; good solutions were also suggested with a specific schedule to solve the problem,” the official stated.

The northern part of the route (from Yerevan to Georgia) has been completed by Armenia and the southern part toward the Norduz border in Iran is remaining which the two sides agreed to launch the construction operations. 

According to Khademi, Armenia's long-term plan is to build section 4 of this global corridor, and Iran has announced its readiness for its consultants and contractors to participate in the implementation of this project.

Azerbaijan is controlling and claiming ownership for approximately 20 km out of a 400 km route from Norduz to Yerevan. Since last month, Azerbaijan has imposed strict regulations on Iranian drivers which are posing major problems for them passing through the 20-kilometer section of Armenia’s Goris-Kapan Road including paying tolls levied by Azerbaijani border guards.

Iran and Armenia are seeking ways to bypass Azerbaijan for their traffic.

The Goris-Kapan Road is the main traffic route in southern Armenia. Since the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, a 20-kilometer section of the road has been under Azerbaijani control. But since early 2021 it has set up border guard posts on their sections of the road, thereby disrupting the traffic along the route.

EF/MA

https://www.tehranti...-transit-routes

[Yervant1]

Oct 12 2021

 

 

Azerbaijan-Iran tensions risk pulling Turkey into possible confrontation

 

• Turkey Abroad
• Oct 12 2021 12:15 Gmt+3
• Last Updated On: Oct 12 2021 12:16 Gmt+3

Azerbaijan and Iran have become locked in a war of words after they held competing military drills next to their common border over the past few weeks.

Any sharp military escalation risks drawing in Turkey, Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), said in comments during the latest episode of Ahval’s Turkey Abroad podcast.   

Azizi said that the chances of military hostilities breaking out between Azerbaijan and Iran remained low, but lingering tensions following last year’s war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh are bubbling to the surface.

 

Much of Iran’s anger towards Azerbaijan has revolved around the latter’s detention of Iranian truckers in Nagorno-Karabakh and disrupting their trade with Armenia.

Iranian military and political officials have not been shy about underscoring their defensiveness towards Azerbaijan in recent days by pointing to Azerbaijan's close military relationship with its chief rival, Israel.

Before and during the military drills in its northwest, Iranian politicians and military figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, warned that the presence of outside military forces in the South Caucasus was unacceptable to Tehran.

Turkey’s strengthened position in the South Caucasus, strengthened by increased military support for Azerbaijan, has not escaped Iran’s concerns, said Azizi. Despite pledges of regional economic cooperation that would include Iran, Turkish firms have assumed the lion’s share of reconstruction projects in Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving Tehran out in the cold.

In the run-up to Iran’s military drills and in their aftermath, Turkey has joined Azerbaijan in its military exercises together with Pakistan.

Azizi says that the joint military maneuvers “do not help bring stability in the region” from Iran’s perspective and the involvement of Pakistani troops could be seen as a precursor to inviting other outside powers to the region.

Iran sees the involvement of Turkey and Pakistan as violating Azerbaijan’s commitment to international law on the Caspian Sea that forbids military activities by non-littoral states, he said.

Azizi said that Iran does not place Turkey on the same level as Israel as a security threat, and its close bonds with Azerbaijan are nothing new. However, he argues that rivalry with Turkey is taking a broader strategic context and Iran sees Ankara in a stronger position regionally after the Nagorno-Karabakh war.

Azizi says that Turkey’s aspirations to serve as a transit route for East-West trade via projects such as China’s One Belt One Road initiative put it into direct competition with Iran’s own interest in playing a similar role.

Ankara’s push for energy cooperation in the Caspian Sea, together with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, to fulfill long-held aspirations of developing its gas transit role to Europe also rankles Iranian decision-makers, he said.

To address its concerns in the South Caucasus, Iran has recently turned to Russia for diplomatic support. Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian traveled to Moscow to raise concerns about what Tehran fears is a changing geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus that threatens it.

After the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed the importance of the 3+3 format that includes the countries of the South Caucasus as well as Turkey and Iran, but added that Moscow was "opposed to building up military activity in the region or conducting any exercises of a provocative nature" without naming any country.

Azizi said that Iran was also careful not to specifically refer to Turkey’s role. He chalked the omission up to a desire to continue balancing its multifaceted relationship with Ankara, but said relying on Russia was the “only way” for Iran to exercise influence in the Caucasus.

 

https://ahvalnews.co...e-confrontation

[Yervant1]

Oct 12 2021

 

 

Iran and India opt for Armenia instead of Azerbaijan for regional connectivity project by PAUL ANTONOPOULOS

000

Azerbaijan, with the backing of Turkey and Syrian mercenaries, were the undisputed victors of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War after reclaiming most of the territory from Armenian control. It was expected that with most of Nagorno-Karabakh under Baku’s control, new trade and transportation corridors would open and ensure that Azerbaijan became an indispensable connectivity hub in the Caucasus. Although there is a possibility for a trade corridor with Turkey to open and extend into the Turkic heartland of Central Asia, Azerbaijan’s hostile and aggressive posture has also meant that India and Iran are looking elsewhere to engage with Europe economically.

On Monday, a BBC journalist quoted the chairman of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, Alireza Peymanpak, as saying: “Two alternative Iran-Eurasia transit routes will replace Azerbaijan’s route. First opens in a month via Armenia after [the] end of repair work, and the second via sea by purchasing and renting vessels.”

Peymanpak was referencing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a major economic project that is 7,200-km long and comprises of rail, road and water routes aimed at reducing travel time and costs. It will also boost trade between Russia, Iran, Central Asia, the Caucasus, India and Europe. Not only is this route 30% cheaper and 40% shorter than the current route, but it also serves as a geopolitical tool to further isolate Azerbaijan as its relationship with Iran and India deteriorates.

The original INSTC route runs through India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia. Baku made massive investments to improve their own local infrastructure to accommodate for the necessities of the INSTC, completing roads, railways, bridges and tunnels. However, despite their economic commitment to be a key player in the INSTC, Azerbaijan’s ideological guide has led to a cooling of relations with Iran and India.

Azerbaijan in recent times has become increasingly vocal in condemning India’s policies towards Kashmir in support of Pakistan. It is recalled that in January, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan issued a joint declaration to support each country’s respective ambitions in Nagorno-Karabakh, Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean, and Kashmir. Although their trilateral relations have always been strong, they have been conducting joint military exercises more regularly since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, including directly on the Iranian border. It could suggest that the alliance was emboldened by victory in Nagorno-Karabakh and could now be more willing to use war to achieve its goals.

Due to Baku’s overconfidence after last year’s victory, it has not hidden away from demanding more territory. Territorial demands are not just over the bulk of Armenia, but also Iran’s northwest Azeri-majority region. Although Tehran and Baku traditionally have cordial relations, the calling of greater territorial conquests and the blatant display of Israeli military equipment in Azerbaijani possession has broken trust, with war between the two countries seemingly not far away.

The Indian reaction to the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan trilateral nexus has been swift. As India is also an emerging economy with a huge market and potential, even ultra-conservative monarchist states like Saudi Arabia have significantly cut their funding to radical Islamist organizations in Pakistan to successfully find a balance with India. With the exception of Qatar, traditional jihadist financiers across the Arab States in the Persian Gulf have stopped money flows as they now prioritize developing their economies and modernizing infrastructure.

In this way, Pakistan is increasingly seen as more of nuisance because of its chronic insistence on exporting jihadists, an image that Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are trying to break away from. With the Arab states less focussed on perceived global Islamic issues like Kashmir, it is unsurprising that trade with India has skyrocketed – trade between India and Saudi Arabia amounted to $33.09 billion in 2019-2020, whilst between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia it was only $1.7 billion in 2019.

Due to the increasing hostilities by the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan nexus, India and Iran announced that the INTSC from next month will begin running through Armenia instead of Azerbaijan to reach Russia. Baku believed that it could balance an aggressive foreign policy whilst being an indispensable state in connectivity projects. Instead, it finds itself increasingly isolated with no friends besides Turkey and Pakistan, and only cordial ties with Georgia and Russia.

With the Turkish lira once again breaking its record against the U.S. dollar on Monday, Turkey has extremely limited capacity to once again deal with another military front in the Caucasus, especially as it is seemingly preparing for a new operation against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria. This effectively means that if Azerbaijan was to provoke another war in the region, it is unlikely that Turkey can offer the same support it did against the Armenians, especially if fighting against Iran.

None-the-less, due to the increasing instability instigated by Azerbaijan in the region, it is becoming an unreliable partner for countries to put trust in it to be a transportation-trade hub. In this way, Iran and India are now hinging on Armenia for regional connectivity as they aim to isolate Azerbaijan from such corridors. If the pan-Turkic corridor fails to materialize, Azerbaijan through its own actions turned its potential of being an indispensable transportation-trade hub to being isolated from ambitious regional projects aimed at improving connectivity – and this is to Armenia’s advantage as the two massive regional powers of Iran and India will more closely build relations with it.

READ MORE: Iran and Azerbaijan on the brink of war but it is unlikely to boilover.

https://greekcitytim...pt-for-armenia/

[MosJan]

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.com

 

Potential Chabahar Port-Black Sea link through Armenia expected to increase turnover with Iran to billions of dollars

 

 

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 10:55, 14 October, 2021

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 14, ARMENPRESS. The government of Armenia is working intensely to resolve the issues related to the Armenia-Iran road communication, Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan told Tasnim News Agency in an interview.

Grigoryan said the Armenian government seeks to complete the alternative road by yearend.

 

 

“We can say that this is generally a short-term issue. But there is another, more important project. In late September the Armenian government approved the North-South’s Sisian-Iranian border road project. This project is worth more than 1 billion dollars and will entirely change the region’s infrastructures. By implementing this program we also have in mind the idea of becoming a key infrastructure hub linking the Chabahar Port with the Black Sea. From this perspective we can say that this project will give great opportunity to increase trade turnover between Armenia and Iran,” Grigoryan said.

While currently the turnover between Armenia and Iran is in the hundreds of millions of dollars, Grigoryan says the figure should soon pass 1 billion dollars. Grigoryan noted that this will enable to increase the trade turnover to several billion dollars in the future. He said that Armenia and Iran have a broad circle of a positive agenda in bilateral relations.

Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan

 

 

https://armenpress.a...K1CfLmW53KSmP_U

[Yervant1]

LinkedIn Pulse

Oct 15  2021

 

 

 

 

THE ZANGEZUR CORRIDOR: Iran’s Gateway To Europe Or Turkey’s Highway To Turan

• Published on October 15, 2021

 

Ara Joseph Sarian

Senior Advisor/Analyst Experienced in Risk/ Security & Justice Sector Crisis Management to Effectuate Nation-Building Strategies.

 

 

 

 

During the last several weeks, a little-known twenty-seven-mile-long border between Armenia and Iran has become the epicenter of a potential conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan that portends the onset of the much-anticipated effort by Israel and the West to prevent a nuclear Iran from becoming a reality.

The fallout from Israel’s objection to Iran’s nearing the development of a nuclear capability is the underlying though not the primary cause of the recent friction at Armenia’s border with Iran. As America begins to retrench from the Middle East wars, the overarching regional conflict between Iran and Israel is now shifting over to Azerbaijan and Turkey insisting on taking over Armenia’s borderland contiguous to Iran in violation of Armenia’s territorial integrity. This locus recently coined as the “Zangezur Corridor” would create a land link between Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave located at Armenia’s West to mainland Azerbaijan on Armenia’s East. Strategically, this will allow Turkey – a close ally, an ethnic and linguistic relative of Azeris— to expand its economic reach and political influence through an unobstructed land route that extends from its European border in Eastern Thrace to the Caspian Sea and over to its ancestral lands of Central Asia that border China. This expansion would effectively lay down the foundations of Turkey’s long-envisioned Turanian empire.

The takeover of the Zangezur Corridor has equal, if not more important, economic and geopolitical benefits for Turkey. Back in 2013, China’s President Xi Jinping announced the opening of China’s silk road –a brand new double trade corridor set to reopen channels between China and its neighbors in the West: most notably Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. What makes this plan, also known as the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), critical to understanding the Zangezur Corridor conflict is the fact that the silk road is designed to traverse through Turkey on its way to Europe while circumventing Armenia. Avoidance of Armenia becomes a pivotal geopolitical advantage to China’s competitors. 

It is politically well established that China and India are Asia’s major adversaries. Within this complex geopolitical backdrop, China, Pakistan, and Pakistan’s close ally, Turkey including Azerbaijan have developed an unholy alliance against the competing forces of India and Iran. While not necessarily adversarial, as in China-Iran relations, these alliances are real and relevant within the context of the larger economic realities presented by the silk road. 

To countervail the effects of the silk road, India has planned an alternative economic trade route of its own to prevent its isolation and compete against China. India’s proposed road to the European market must by necessity circumvent countries that are in alliance with the Chinese plan; namely, and most relevantly within the context of the Zangezur conflict, Turkey and Azerbaijan, which are in solid partnership and political and ideological alliance with India’s perennial nemesis, Pakistan. 

This political polarization leaves India with the only alternative option of shipping its goods to Iran via the Arabian Sea and into the Persian Gulf. The goods will then traverse Iran by land to cross the Armenian border of Zangezur –the only friendly route available to reach the Black Sea ports of Georgia to be shipped across to the shores of Europe. 

To prevent India from using Iran as its transit hub, Turkey, through its surrogate Azerbaijan has decided to capture the Zangezur Corridor to monopolize the economic trade routes to Europe. By capturing the corridor, Turkey and its client state, Azerbaijan, almost completely encircle Armenia, leaving the border of an unreliably neutral Georgia as Armenia’s only outlet to the outside world. The result is a landlock that foretells a bad omen reminiscent of the days Armenians were subjugated to the whims of their Ottoman overlords.

Azerbaijan has had close diplomatic, economic, and defense industry ties with Israel since relations began in 1992. During Azerbaijan’s war with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region last year, Baku — heavily backed by the Turkish military — deployed Israeli-made Kamikaze (IAI Harop) drones on the battlefield, which when coupled with the highly advanced Turkish Bayrakdar drones caused major havoc on Armenian forces. 

Taking advantage of his victory over the defeated Armenian forces, Aliyev, who seems to be in a state of euphoric stupor, appears to be under the spell of his Turkish overlords, who stand to gain the most out of appropriating the Zangezur Corridor. Turkey’s rush to force Armenia to buckle under the pressure and deliver the corridor before it manages to recover from its military defeat is its strategy to strike while the iron is hot and before Western powers begin to intervene for an equitable peace deal. 

A series of provocative events directly aimed at pressuring Armenia to give up its Zangezur Corridor with Iran as a pretext to simply link up the two separate parts of Azerbaijan was perceived as a tacit diversionary setup to deny Iran access to Armenia. By forcefully acquiring the Armenian borderland with Iran (i.e., the Zangezur Corridor), Iran would then be alternatively forced to ship the goods through the Turkish/Azerbaijani-acquired Zangezur Corridor to move India’s products to Europe. This would make Turkey and Azerbaijan the beneficiaries of both the Chinese silk road and its Indian counterpart. Iran’s reaction to this is that it will not tolerate any geopolitical or map changes in the Caucasus that would subordinate Iran’s interests to those of its Turkic neighbors. 

The intensity of Azerbaijan’s provocative events of recent weeks caused the percolating years-long developments to erupt and enflame relations that had remained dormant for years.   

The first signs of provocation began when Turkey, true to its tried and tested methods in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, sent its Syrian Islamist Jihadi terrorists to fight alongside the Azeris against the Armenian forces in last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh war. After the war, Jihadis never left the area. Azerbaijan and Turkey gave the Jihadi terrorists and their families incentives to begin settlements in the region. The precedent of surrounding Iran with settlements of Jihadis of the Sunni denomination of Islam who consider Shiites heretics did not sit well with Iran’s Shia leaders.

Tensions continued to mount between Tehran and Baku when Azerbaijani forces began to block, fine, and in a couple of instances detain, Iranian truck drivers on the Goris-Kapan Highway in Armenia’s Syunik Province where Azerbaijan had managed to occupy a strip of that Armenian land during the Karabakh war. Upon Iranian protest, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev began delivering tirades and in an insulting move displayed a doctored poster of the assassinated Iranian commander of the Quds Force Qasem Soleimani to further provoke Iranian ire. 

Tehran took Aliyev’s shenanigans as an affront to Iran’s sovereignty and its right to protect its citizens against unlawful levies and in some instances arrest of its citizen while transporting goods to stranded Armenians in the Artsakh region of Nagorno-Karabakh. In a move to escalate tensions, news emerged that an Azerbaijani assassin allegedly hired by Iran sought to kill wealthy Israeli businesspeople in Cyprus.

To further inflame the situation, Azerbaijan conducted a naval exercise allowing members of the Turkish military to join its naval forces in the Caspian Sea, triggering condemnation from Iran asserting that the exercise violated norms excluding non-bordering countries from deploying forces on Caspian waters.

Having had enough and sensing ulterior motives, Iran began holding large-scale military exercises near the borders of Azerbaijan. 

THE UNDERLYING CAUSAL CONNECTION OF THE CONFLICT

The twin fundamental causes that underly the eruption of this conflict is: (A) Iran’s near completion of its nuclear weapons program that Israel considers to be an existential threat to Israel; and ( the existence of known, but officially denied, Israeli military and intelligence bases in Azerbaijan conceivably to facilitate the launching of attacks and offensives against Iran and its nuclear facilities from a closer distance than Israel. Iran expresses “serious concerns” about Israel’s presence in the Caucasus as tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan mount over Baku’s ties with Israel, a major arms supplier.

The crescendo effect of these progressively worsening developments along Iran’s Armenian border has led Iran to mobilize forces and hold military drills close to its northwestern borders with Azerbaijan amid lingering tensions following Azerbaijan’s 44-day war with Armenia last year. In response, Azerbaijan and Turkey launched a joint military drill starting on Wednesday, the 6th of October – an ominous event reminiscent of last year’s drills that took place before the invasion of the Karabakh region.

The ace in the hole in this ongoing conflict is Putin’s role and influence in driving the forces and events that led to the Nagorno-Karabakh war and the unfolding developments and cascading reactions since the end of its kinetic phase. Russia is in the mode of making calculated concessions to Turkey to lure it away from NATO. Albeit adversaries in Syria, Libya, and Iraq, Russia, in an unprecedented move, allowed Turkey to establish a limited foothold in the Caucasus at the cost of facilitating the Armenian defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh by default. 

To allay Turkey’s disappointment in denying its full integration into the Caucasus and to further alienate Turkey from the West, Putin offered Turkey the sale of the second tranche of its S-400 missiles and the free rein to capture its grand prize –the Zangezur Corridor.  A prize from which Russia could also economically benefit as the two countries would secure a direct land-based passage through the borders between Russia and Azerbaijan to conduct trade.

Washington’s relative silence regarding the latter developments and particularly the anticipated purchase of the additional S-400 missiles from Russia may be a calculated measure awaiting the evolution of the Iran/Azerbaijan conflict that may draw Turkey into the fold. As the United States scales back its commitments throughout the Middle East, as recently manifested in Afghanistan, its reliance on regional partners will only increase. And in the wake of an impending nuclear Iran, the U.S. may very well be encouraging its surrogates Israel, Turkey, and Azerbaijan to accomplish its objectives. Such a war, sparked by the joint effort of Turkey and Azerbaijan to dispossess Armenia of its Zangezur border with Iran, however, will set the entire Middle East region on hell-fire that will create a tsunami of refugees that will engulf Europe with turmoil and chaos or even wars for decades to come.  

In 2019, the United States kicked Turkey out of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program after NATO ally Ankara purchased Russia’s S-400 air defense system. The reason the Turks were expelled from the program was that the Russian hardware poses a threat to the security of the technology included in the Lockheed-Martin-made F-35.

And yet, a UK-based Arabic news site Elaph has reported citing a senior Israeli source that two advanced Israeli F-35 stealth fighter jets have been ‘permanently stationed’ in Azerbaijan. The report, published on 2 October, comes at a time of rising tension between Azerbaijan and Iran, with Iran threatening Azerbaijan and accusing it of hosting Israeli forces. If the S-400 indeed poses a threat to the security of the technology included in the F-35 when both weapons are concentrated in the same hands, how can one reconcile the fact that the anti-Iran protagonists in possession of the F-35 slated for use against Iran also have the possession and capacity to use Turkey’s S-400 missiles? It begs the question, could the F-35 be compromised in a quid pro quo exchange? Or do we trust our allies so much that we are willing to take the risk? Or perhaps the U.S. has already retrofitted the F-35 to prevent its vulnerability from the S-400.

Though Azerbaijan denies any Israeli presence on Azeri soil, the denial appears to be specious as this is not the first time reports of Israeli jets in Azerbaijan have emerged. In 2012, Foreign Policy magazine cited four senior American diplomats and military intelligence officers as saying that the U.S. believed Israel had been granted access to an airbase in Azerbaijan. It is well established through other sources including the 2009 U.S. Embassy cable leaks via Wikileaks that Israel and Azerbaijan enjoy close relations, with Israel selling billions of dollars worth of military equipment to Azerbaijan, including sophisticated drones that were heavily relied on to destroy Armenian forces in the 2020 Karabakh war. 

But Russian pundits have a different take on the situation. They believe that neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan is in a position to engage Iran in an all-out war that could wreak havoc and devastation with an uncertain outcome. Pakistan is under Chinese influence and thus not inclined to directly participate in a war against Iran unless sanctioned by China.  

If by some ill-advised move Turkey decides to attack Iran, it will have some very serious problems with Russia that could lead to its defeat, say the Russians. Moreover, Turkey does not have a unified popular front in support of a war with Iran as Iran does. Despite its various ethnic populations, including some twenty-plus million Azeris, Iran can mobilize its population around its religious Shia faith. 

What Russian pundits do not consider is that after its latest adventurism in the region, Turkey is now standing on a slippery slope. Its recent announcement to purchase additional Russian S-400 missiles has further alienated the United States. News of requesting to purchase 40 US-made F-16 fighter jets from the United States,

which some suspect might well be a gambit to set the stage for warplane negotiations with Russia, comes as a classic play of both ends against the middle just days after Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his government was planning to expand defense ties with Russia. This, while recognizing Crimea as Ukrainian territory seems to unsettle Russia. Russia knows that such recognition is meant to secure Turkey with military bases in the Ukraine, which Russia interprets as a further NATO intrusion upon its near abroad security belt. Regardless, Russia plays along knowing that luring Turkey away from NATO – by offering it, a heretofore denied, limited but concrete access to the Caucasus and a realistic opportunity to manifest its fledgling Pan-Turkist vision— is well worth it. But for Turkey to play both ends of the political chess game cannot but ultimately undermine its strategy.  

To minimize the chances of an internal collapse and prevent a general uprising of its ethnic Azeri population that could trigger a copycat effect encouraging the remaining Arab, Baluchi, and Kurdish ethnic groups to take advantage of the opportunity to secede from Iran, Iran devised a strategic rallying cry uniting all Iranians behind the struggle to defeat the Israeli Zionist aggressor. Characterizing the conflict as an anti-Israel crusade triggers the mechanism that could draw universal allegiance to the cause regardless of ethnic affinities. This clever maneuver is a prophylactic measure aimed at drawing the loyalty of the Azeri population who could otherwise empathize with and decide to unite with their Azerbaijani kin.   

RUSSIA/TURKEY LONG-TERM STRATEGIC VISION

Iran is the only geographic barrier that impedes the joint long-term ambitious plan of Russia and Turkey to spread their otherwise unilaterally unachievable influence across the Middle East, the Mediterranean basin, and over to South and South East Asia and Africa.

Notwithstanding Israel’s overt policy to destroy or diminish Iranian hegemony over it and the region, there is more reason to believe that the ultimate purpose of instigating and provoking Iran into war is to carry out a Russia/Turkey collusive plan of neutralizing Iran through a blitzkrieg operation. The plan hinges on whether Iran takes the bait. Turkey, including its Syrian Jihadi and Pakistani units, and Azerbaijan with the direct support of Israel presumably attack from the north/northeast of Iran while Pakistan strikes from the southeast. Meanwhile, Russia moves in to close the Armenia/Iran border to lock Iran within its territory and prevent it from activating India’s planned trade route to Europe. The by-product of this collusive plan, however, would likely trigger internal strife and spark secession movements with grave consequences for the entire region and the world. The probability of this collusive plan going into effect could very much be on the table despite the October 13, 2021, Azerbaijan and Iran agreement to de-escalate tensions through dialogue. Iran’s refusal to stop production of a nuclear bomb and/or Russia’s pressure forcing Armenia to allow Azerbaijan and Turkey the right to use its territory through the Zangezur Corridor may quickly reverse that process and spark a war. The collateral beneficiary of this war would, of course, be Israel – a plausible protagonist but not likely the architect.

Minding the fact that for the first time, an Indian Foreign Minister has just visited Armenia, it remains to be seen whether India will proactively take action to countervail the Russia/Turkish/Azerbaijani hostile plans in the region and protect its stake in its planned trade route to Europe through Armenia’s North/South Highway. 

Trapped between the claws of the Russian bear, Armenia, with limited sway in conducting a free and independent foreign policy, will need all the diplomatic leverage it can muster from India to protect its Zangezur Corridor. Despite its desire to deepen its relations with India, Armenia will not overtly antagonize Russian interests for fear that the latter may allow a greater calamity than the Karabakh war to devastate the Armenian nation while the rest of the world turns a blind eye as it did during the 2020 war. The 2020 Karabakh war has taught the Armenians the bitter lessons of betrayal by a so-called untrustworthy Russian ally who sold them out when the going was tough. They have learned that history repeats itself and that they are just as all alone as they were during the Genocide of 1915 facing the overwhelming power and enemy forces who have for centuries ravaged their nation. 

Ultimately, if Western powers decide, in the interest of preserving their geostrategic leverage, to undermine the ambitious plans of Russia and Turkey, the blitzkrieg strategy against Iran will fail. Only then will we know that the Zangezur Corridor will serve Armenia’s economic future through the India/Iran trade route to Europe; otherwise, Armenia’s loss, to say nothing of outright violation of its territorial integrity, will be Turkey’s gain, not only in monopolizing the transit of both the Chinese and Indian trade routes to Europe but also by offering it the opportunity to inaugurate its long-cherished dream of a Pan-Turkic federation. Notwithstanding the outcome, Russia will still emerge as the clear winner. 

Ara Joseph Sarian

Senior Advisor/Analyst Experienced in Risk/ Security & Justice Sector Crisis Management to Effectuate Nation-Building Strategies.

 

 

 

https://www.linkedin...highway-sarian/

[Yervant1]

Tehran Times, Iran

Oct 17 2021

 

 

Deciphering Azerbaijani president's provocations against Iran

1. Politics

October 16, 2021 - 20:40

 

TEHRAN – Is Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev sleepwalking into a conflict beyond his country’s capacity? Observers in the region gave intriguing answers to this question.

Ever since the sudden eruption of tensions between Tehran and Baku, many pundits and officials in Iran warned about the malign influence of foreigners on the Republic of Azerbaijan.

 In the beginning, it was “third-parties” but as Azeri officials went further in their hostile statements against Iran, it became clear what third-parties exactly means. Initially, Iranian officials sought to defuse tensions with Baku through diplomatic channels, the favorite way of Iran in addressing misunderstandings with Azerbaijan. 

To this end, Iranian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Seyed Abbas Mousavi held several rounds of talks with Azeri officials in Baku in a bid to de-escalate tensions. But the Azeris took a step further and brought the spat to the media. In the meantime, several Azeri lawmakers made provocative remarks against Iran. 

Again, Iranian officialdom avoided a war of words. Instead, some Iranian lawmakers responded to their Azeri counterparts.
 
But when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev jumped in, Iran found itself in a position to respond to Azeri provocations. But even when Iran decided to respond, it did so quite diplomatically.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke over the phone with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov. During the conversation, the chief Iranian diplomat underlined the need for mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries and stressed that Iran and Azerbaijan must prevent misunderstandings in their relations and it is worthwhile to continue their ties in the right and growing direction quickly.

Meanwhile, many Iranian commentators and officials politely warned that tensions between Baku and Tehran could only serve the interests of Israel, which seeks to turn Azerbaijan into a forward base for its malign activities against Iran. 

In fact, some Iranians blame the whole episode on Israel’s provocations. Abdollahian told Bayramov that Tehran and Baku have enemies and the two sides should not give the enemies the opportunity to disrupt relations between the two countries.

Aliyev continued to make controversial remarks against Iran despite Iranian warnings that Israel stands behind the tensions. Tragically, the Azeri president even moved to vindicate Israel while continuing his hostile remarks against Iran. 

In the lasted move, he accused Iran of collaborating with Armenia in drug trafficking via Nagorno-Karabakh territories when they were under Armenian occupation, an accusation that drew a strong response from Iran.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh strongly rejected the “astonishing” new allegations made by Aliyev against Iran at the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States, calling them fabricated.

Again, Iran warned of an Israeli role in the drama. Khatibzadeh said such media accusations are only in the interests of the Zionist regime to affect the brotherly relations between the two nations of Iran and Azerbaijan.

Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani implicitly reiterated the same warning. Writing on Twitter, Shamkhani described as “false” Aliyev’s allegation on Iran’s involvement in drug trafficking. 

“Ignoring the neighborhood principles & making false statements can’t be a sign of a tact. Accusation against a country that the world recognizes as a hero in the fight against drugs has no effect other than invalidating the speaker's words. Beware of the devil's costly traps,” he tweeted. 

So far, Iran has sought to brotherly resolve the dispute which lasted more than expected. But it seems that there are invisible hands prodding Aliyev into prolonging his war of words against Iran. But why?

A Russian expert says Baku is escalating tensions with Iran in a bid to ramp up pressure on it as part of the West’s pressure campaign on Tehran to resume the stalled Vienna nuclear talks over the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The expert, Dmitry Solonnikov, who is the director of the Institute of Contemporary Development in Russia, put the Baku-Tehran tensions into the broader context of the current state of play between Iran and the West. 

“If there was no statement that Iran is about to build an atomic bomb…, then this confrontation between Azerbaijan and Iran would not have taken place now,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. 

If true, this assessment proves that Aliyev is dragging his country into an ill-advised confrontation that will cost his country dearly.

 

 

https://www.tehranti...ns-against-Iran

[Yervant1]

News.am, Armenia

Oct 17 2021

 

 

Armenia Iranologist: Iranian propaganda field has put Azerbaijan president’s regime in corner

10:55, 17.10.2021

 

 

 

Yesterday, the dictator of Baku dared to gossip about the joint alleged involvement of Armenia and Iran in the illegal trafficking of drugs. Iranian studies specialist Vardan Voskanyan, who is also a member of the opposition Homeland party of Armenia, on Saturday wrote this on Facebook.

"Today, the entire Iranian propaganda field has simply put the [Azerbaijani president] Aliyev regime in a corner, also publicizing various information (including from the US State Department website) about Azerbaijan itself being involved in drug smuggling," Voskanyan added.

https://news.am/eng/news/667877.html

Edited by Yervant1, 18 October 2021 - 07:45 AM.

[Yervant1]

Oct 22 2021

 

 

How Azerbaijan’s anti-Iran policies are backfiring

Meanwhile hawks in Washington are encouraging President Ilham Aliyev to stoke tensions with Tehran.

OCTOBER 22, 2021

Written by
Eldar Mamedov

 

The hope for de-escalation of tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan following last week’s phone call between their foreign affairs ministers, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Jeyhun Bayramov respectively, has so far proved to be short-lived.

At a meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States a few days after the call, Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev accused Iran of using the Nagorno-Karabakh region for drug trafficking to Russia and Europe, without producing any proof. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs pushed back against what it called “Aliyev’s astonishing claims.”

Adding fuel to its anti-Tehran campaign, the regime in Baku detained a number of Azerbaijani Shiite clerics considered “pro-Iranian,” including a former imam of the Baku Djoumah (Friday) mosque Ilgar Ibrahimoglu and Sardar Babaev, the main redactor of the religious website maide.az. Both Ibrahimoglu and Babaev studied in Iran, but while the former was released after a long and detailed interrogation, the latter has been formally charged with treason — a charge that, if the past treatment of religious activists is any guide, is likely to result in a long imprisonment and torture. Baku will also use the case to bolster its credentials in the United States and Europe as a bulwark against Iranian-backed “Islamic extremism.”

These latest incidents strongly suggest that, at least for now, Aliyev is unwilling to dial down tensions with Tehran. Baku’s military success against Armenia has clearly emboldened him to openly challenge its southern neighbor as well. When Iran conducted large scale military drills near the borders of Azerbaijan, its conventional arsenal was widely dismissed on Azerbaijani pro-government websites as no match for Azerbaijan’s Israel- and Turkey-powered high-tech equipment. Aliyev counts on Ankara’s and Tel Aviv’s continued military and diplomatic support as a sufficient deterrent against Tehran.

Israel’s support, in Aliyev’s calculation, should also translate into Washington’s — all the more so when the prospects of reviving the Iran nuclear deal remain uncertain and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is warning of “other options” should diplomacy fail.

In this context, as Iran’s relations with its traditional rivals in the Persian Gulf — Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates — are slowly thawing, Azerbaijan is emerging as an alternative staging ground for anti-Iran activities. In fact, since the renewal of the hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, an array of Washington think-tankers sought to expand the conflict to Iran, in hopes that Iranian Azerbaijanis would play act as a stalking horse in fulfilling these hawks’ old dreams — optimally the dismemberment of the country along ethnic lines, or, at least the fostering of armed secessionist movements that would force Tehran to turn inward. Either outcome would be seen as a major win for Israel, Iran’s arch-foe — a key motivation for this group of pundits. With tensions between Tehran and Baku rising, these hawks see that goal within their reach. And Aliyev seems to think that the possible benefits of cozying up to Israel and United States outweighs the risks and costs of angering Iran.

Yet Aliyev’s confidence seems misplaced and counterproductive. Iran’s military exercises near Azerbaijan’s borders were not designed as a preparation for invasion, but rather to get Baku’s attention to Tehran’s displeasure with what it sees as the former’s unfriendly policies. While Iran spent much of the past decade wrestling with the challenges in the Persian Gulf, it paid relatively little attention to the Caucasus. However, Iran has proved to be a highly adaptable, low-cost practitioner of asymmetrical warfare. One sure consequence of Aliyev’s bravado is that Tehran will now focus on strengthening its deterrence against Azerbaijan.

One relatively cost-effective tactic traditionally employed by Tehran to that end is to build up proxies. During the recent tensions with Baku, reports emerged about the creation in Azerbaijan of Hüseynçilər, or Husseynites, after a martyred Shiite imam. It attracted attention with a signature logo of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s elite security force, on its banner. Hüseynçilər, however, for now seem to be more about media hype than a real force.

This is because Azerbaijan presents a different landscape from the countries where Tehran has successfully cultivated proxies, such as Lebanon or Iraq. While nominally majority Shia, the decades of Soviet atheism, followed by a heavy emphasis on secular Turkic nationalism during the independence years eroded Azerbaijan’s connection with Shiism. In fact, the Aliyev administrations — both Ilham and his father and predecessor Heydar — welcomed the spread of Sunnism in the country as a way to distance Azerbaijan from Iran and bring it closer to Turkey. Pro-Turkish sentiment has been greatly reinforced after Azerbaijan’s victory in the war against Armenia.

The government also adopted a somewhat more sophisticated approach to the pockets of committed Shiite believers who still live in the country. While in the past it leaned heavily on repression, it now coopts prestigious religious leaders in an effort to create a sort of national-Shiism, i.e. a variant of faith that is politically pro-state and independent of Iran. One such example is the sheikh Shahin Hasanli, who started in the 1990s as a member of a radical Khomeinist society, and now is part of the official religious establishment. In the midst of the crisis with Iran, Hasanli explicitly distanced himself and fellow Azeri Shiites from Tehran. Rumors in Baku have it that he might replace the current chair of the Board of Caucasus Muslims, a state body in charge of “official Islam,” which is seen as too close to Iran.

Yet there remain a not insignificant number of people in the country disaffected by the corruption and socio-economic inequalities that have grown all too obvious under the Aliyevs’ dynasty. While victory in the war can overshadow these concerns for a while, that won’t last forever. With the secular opposition decimated by Aliyev, it is quite conceivable that, at least to some extent, the discontent will acquire a religious-political form, providing some opening to Tehran in the long run.

Over-emphasizing the Pan-Turkist aspect in its struggle with Tehran is also backfiring on Baku. Stressing the Turkic origins of some of the historical Iranian dynasties, like the Safavids and the Qajars, is not an argument for secession from Iran, as some ideologues in Baku would have it, but rather reinforces the Iranian Azeris’ connection with Iran.

In fact, the recent Baku-Tehran flare-up rekindled the long-dormant view in Iran of the Caucasus as a renegade province cleaved away from it in the 19th century by the Russian empire. The rise of Iranian nationalism, in both its religious and secular forms, is another long-term consequence that Aliyev and his supporters failed to foresee. One of its implications is that Tehran has already started pivoting to Yerevan, thus ironically making Baku’s claims of its pro-Armenian tilt a self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, Iran decided to use Armenia, rather than Azerbaijan, as its conduit for North-South trade, a project into which Azerbaijan has invested a big deal as a ticket to its post-oil prosperity. 

While such projects are more of a long-term nature, Iran already possesses its ultimate conventional deterrent: its missiles whose range covers Azerbaijan’s entire territory. Iran has demonstrated its ability to strike with precision on Saudi oilfields, despite Riyadh’s close security relationship with the United States. Admittedly, such a strike would signify a massive escalation and invite retaliation, possibly with the participation of Turkey, so the threshold for undertaking it would be extremely high. However, Iranian leaders have amply demonstrated in the past that, if pushed into a corner, they would not hesitate to lash out at their perceived enemies. Thus, Aliyev’s newfound pugnacity and provocation towards Iran risks undermining Azerbaijan’s long-term security.

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not necessarily the opinions of the S&D Group and the European Parliament.

 

 

https://responsibles...are-backfiring/

[Yervant1]

Tehran Times, Iran

Oct 24 2021

 

 

 

Iranian trade delegations visit Armenia seeking expansion of ties

1. Economy

October 24, 2021 - 12:5

 

TEHRAN – Two Iranian trade delegations have visited Armenia over the past month to explore avenues of mutual cooperation in various areas including plastic, polymers, agriculture, and foodstuff with Armenian counterparts, Iran’s commercial attaché in Yerevan announced.

“During their visit, the delegations examined the export potentials and barriers to trade cooperation between the two countries,” IRNA quoted Akbar Godari as saying on Friday.

According to the official, one of the mentioned delegations was comprised of businessmen and traders active in the polymer and plastics industry while the other one was mainly focused on agriculture and foodstuff areas.

During their visit, the polymer and plastics delegation met with the Iranian Ambassador to Yerevan, Abbas Badakhshan Zohuri, to discuss geopolitical issues, the importance of the Armenian market, the country’s trade-related laws and regulations, as well as issues related to mutual coproduction, Godari said.

“Chairman of Iran-Armenia Joint Chamber of Commerce Hervik Yarijanian, in a meeting with the Iranian delegation, emphasized the development of trade between the two countries and noted that the existing obstacles are hindering the growth and development of mutual exports and trade,” he added.

One of the requests of the businessmen in the meeting with Yarijanian was to exchange trade delegations while holding exhibitions in Iran, Godari said.

The agriculture and foodstuff delegation also met with the Iranian ambassador in Yerevan and also held talks with Yarijanian.

During their visit, they also visited some of Armenia’s major markets and held B2B meetings with their Armenian counterparts.

Earlier, Yarijanian had said that Iran-Armenia trade has fluctuated up to $500 million in recent years.

“By launching Moghri free zone in Armenia, next to the Aras free zone in Iran, the volume of exchanges between the two countries can be increased,” he stressed.

According to the official, the trade between the two countries can be increased to over $1.2 billion in less than a year.

EF/MA

 

https://www.tehranti...ng-expansion-of

[Yervant1]

Tehran Times, Iran

Oct 25 2021

 

 

 

Iran reaches agreement with Armenia on new transport routes

1. Economy

October 25, 2021 - 15:39

 

TEHRAN - Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) Mehdi Mirashrafi said good agreements have been reached with Armenia on the development of customs cooperation as well as the use of alternative routes for the transport of goods.

Mirashrafi who visited Moscow on Sunday to attend an international customs conference noted that Iran has diversified its international routes so that no single route could impose a limitation on the country’s international trade.

Earlier this month, Deputy Transport and Urban Development Minister Kheirollah Khademi had announced an agreement between Iran and Armenia for establishing new transit routes, as the two countries are facing problems in trade exchanges through Azerbaijan.

“The alternative transit route for Iranian trucks in Armenia will be asphalted within the next month, and there will be no need to use the previous route which passes through Azerbaijan and requires us to pay tolls to the country,” Khademi said.

Azerbaijan is controlling and claiming ownership for approximately 20 km out of a 400 km route between Iran and Armenia and has imposed strict regulations on Iranian drivers which are posing major problems for them passing through the 20-kilometer section of Armenia’s Goris-Kapan Road including paying tolls levied by Azerbaijani border guards.

Mirashrafi further pointed to the positive talks held with the members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) during the conference, saying: “The volume of trade between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union has taken an upward path, and with the agreements reached, we will soon see a leap in trade relations with the member countries of this union.”

Referring to the importance of land crossings for the export and import of goods between Iran and Russia, the official said: "Completing the maritime and road infrastructure and providing more customs facilities, especially in the Caspian Sea region, can increase trade [between the two countries]."

In addition to ground roads, Iran has routes in the Caspian Sea through Ro-Ro ships to Azerbaijan Republic, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, Mirashrafi added.

EF/MA

 

 

https://www.tehranti...ransport-routes