QUOTE (Sasun @ Jun 4 2004, 02:00 PM)
Well, treaties matter as much as what is behind them matter. Treaty is a commonly understood and agreed upon scheme of relationships. The existence of a treaty means that there powerful enough we can make new treaties that reflect that power and play in our advantage.
Treaties do matter only when they are backed by a "ladle of steel" as opposed to Khrimian Hayrik's Tughte Sherep (Ladle of Paper).
Have Armenia and Armenians learned a lesson?
I think so!
To never again be caught by surprise!
WWI broke out.
We were not in any shape or form to take advantage.
On the contrary we were caught by surprise, and we were CAUGHT.
Skip, skip....
The USSR dissolved.
Once again we were unprepared. We have no long term vision!
Anatolia WILL implode. I am convinced of this. I will not call it Turkey since the latter is an artificial state. The "Decline and Fall" of the Ottoman Empire that was mercifully halted at a certain time WILL resume.
Are we ready?
Do we have "ladles" other than that of paper?
You may say we are small and poor. There are other states, one in particular that is much smaller, a state that is mainly a desert with no topography to hide such that is rumored to have "ladles" made of steel and radiant matter. Who will help us develop such "ladles"? It seems at the present not the West.
Don't count your chickens yet!
Remember Iraq that one time was a "staunch ally" of the West?
Rich natural resources. With pipelines to the north through Turkey, to the South at the Persian Gulf, to the west through Syria. Then! Pop! A demigod who assumed he could get away with murder.
Which brings to mind that other demigod aka "Saddam" Ilham of Baku. He may be betting on piplines to the north, south, east and west.
Wait till he becomes too big for his britches. Wait till he becomes too fat, too confident.
His land is not so uniformly monolithic either.
Wait till he becomes too emboldened to try and reclaim what they call Zangelan/Zangezoor. Wait till he becomes brash enough to reclaim what they call Iranian Azerbaijan!
I firmly beieve many of these scenarios will happer if not all.
Are we ready?
Do we have "ladles" other than the paper ones?
Do we have a plan?
How long a plan is it?
One year?
Ten years?
A hundred years?